Based Underground is now a conservative news aggregator AND curated newsletter.
(International Man)—These people have to be stopped!
We are talking about the nation’s unhinged monetary politburo domiciled in the Eccles Building, of course. It is bad enough that their relentless inflation of financial assets has showered the 1% with untold trillions of windfall gains, but their ultimate crime is that they lured the nation’s elected politician into a veritable fiscal trance. Consequently, future generations will be lugging the service costs on insuperable public debts for years to come.
- Concerned about your life’s savings as the multiple challenges decimate retirement accounts? You’re not alone. Find out how Genesis Precious Metals can help you secure your wealth with a proper self-directed IRA backed by physical precious metals.
For more than two decades these foolish PhDs and monetary apparatchiks drove the entire Treasury yield curve to rock bottom, even as public debt erupted skyward. In this context, the single biggest chunk of the Treasury debt lies in the 90-day T-bill sector, but between December 2007 and June 2023 the inflation-adjusted yield on this workhorse debt security was negative 95% of the time.
That’s right. During that 187-month span, the interest rate exceeded the running (LTM) inflation rate during only nine months, as depicted by the purple area picking above the zero bound in the chart, and even then by just a tad. All the rest of the time, Uncle Sam was happily taxing the inflationary rise in nominal incomes, even as his debt service payments were dramatically lagging the 78% rise of CPI during that period.
Inflation-Adjusted Yield On 90-Day T-bills, 2007 to 2022
The above was the fiscal equivalent of Novocain. It enabled the elected politicians to merrily jig up and down Pennsylvania Avenue and stroll the K-Street corridors dispensing bountiful goodies left and right, while experiencing nary a moment of pain from the massive debt burden they were piling on the main street economy.
Accordingly, during the quarter-century between Q4 1997 and Q1 2022 the public debt soared from $5.5 trillion to $30.4 trillion or by 453%. In any rational world a commensurate rise in Federal interest expense would have surely awakened at least some of the revilers.
But not in Fed World. As it happened, Uncle Sam’s interest expense only increased by 73%, rising from $368 billion to $635 billion per year during the same period. By contrast, had interest rates remained at the not unreasonable levels posted in late 1997, the interest expense level by Q1 2022, when the Fed finally awakened to the inflationary monster it had fostered, would have been $2.03 trillion per annum.
In short, the Fed reckless and relentless repression of interest rates during that quarter century fostered an elephant in the room that was one for the ages. Annualized Federal interest expense was fully $1.3 trillion lower than would have been the case at the yield curve in place in Q4 1997.
Alas, the missing interest expense amounted to the equivalent of the entire social security budget!
So, we’d guess the politicians might have been aroused from their slumber had interest expense reflected market rates. Instead, they were actually getting dreadfully wrong price signals and the present fiscal catastrophe is the consequence.
Index Of Public Debt Versus Federal Interest Expense, Q4 1997-Q1 2022
Needless to say, the US economy was not wallowing in failure or under-performance at the rates which prevailed in 1997. In fact, during that year real GDP growth was +4.5%, inflation posted at just 1.7%, real median family income rose by 3.2%, job growth was 2.8% and the real interest rates on the 10-year UST was +4.0%.
In short, 1997 generated one of the strongest macroeconomic performances in recent decades—even with inflation-adjusted yields on the 10-year UST of +4.0%. So there was no compelling reason for a massive compression of interest rates, but that is exactly what the Fed engineered over the next two decades. As shown in the graph below, rates were systematically pushed lower by 300 to 500 basis points across the curve by the bottom in 2020-2021.
Current yields are higher by 300 to 400 basis points from this recent bottom, but here’s the thing: They are only back to nominal levels prevalent at the beginning of the period in 1997, even as inflation is running at 3-4% Y/Y increases, or double the levels of 1997.
US Treasury Yields, 1997 to 2024
Unfortunately, even as the Fed has tepidly moved toward normalization of yields as shown in the graph above, Wall Street is bringing unrelenting pressure for a new round of rates cuts, which would result in yet another spree of the deep interest rate repression and distortion that has fueled Washington’s fiscal binge since the turn of the century.
As it is, the public debt is already growing at an accelerating clip, even before the US economy succumbs to the recession that is now gathering force. And we do mean accelerating. The public debt has recently been increasing by $1 trillion every 100 days. That’s $10 billion per day, $416 million per hour.
In fact, Uncle Sam’s debt has risen by $470 billion in the first two months of this year to $34.5 trillion and is on pace to surpass $35 trillion in a little over a month, $37 trillion well before year’s end, and $40 trillion some time in 2025. That’s about two years ahead of the current CBO (Congressional Budget Office) forecast.
On the current path, moreover, the public debt will reach $60 trillion by the end of the 10-year budget window. But even that depends upon the CBO’s latest iteration of Rosy Scenario, which envisions no recession ever again, just 2% inflation as far as the eye can see and real interest rates of barely 1%. And that’s to say nothing of the trillions in phony spending cuts and out-year tax increases that are built into the CBO baseline but which Congress will never actually allow to materialize.
What is worse, even with partial normalization of rates, a veritable tsunami of Federal interest expense is now gathering steam. That is because the ultra-low yields of 2007 to 2022 are now rolling over into the current market rates shown above—at the same time that the amount of public debt outstanding is heading skyward. As a result, the annualized run rate of Federal interest expense hit $1.1 trillion in February and is heading for $1.6 trillion by the end of the current fiscal year in September.
Finally, even as the run-rate of interest expense has been soaring, the bureaucrats at the US Treasury have been drastically shortening the maturity of the outstanding debt, as it rolls over. Accordingly, more than $21 trillion of Treasury paper has been refinanced in the under one-year T-bill market, thereby lowering the weighted-average maturity of the public debt to less than five- years.
The apparent bet is that the Fed will be cutting rates soon. As is becoming more apparent by the day, however, that’s just not in the cards: No matter how you slice it, the running level of inflation has remained exceedingly sticky and shows no signs of dropping below its current 3-4% range any time soon.
What is also becoming more apparent by the day is that the money-printers at the Fed have led Washington into a massive fiscal calamity. It is only a matter of time, therefore, until the brown stuff hits the fan like never before.
Sound off about this article on The Economic Collapse Substack.
International Man Editor’s Note: The truth is, we’re on the cusp of an economic crisis that could eclipse anything we’ve seen before. And most people won’t be prepared for what’s coming.
That’s exactly why bestselling author Doug Casey and his team just released a free report with all the details on how to survive an economic collapse. Click here to download the PDF now.
TRENDING ARTICLES
OMG: O’Keefe Media Group Exposes Disney’s “Gender Expression Transitioning” Program
by Liberty One News
On Thursday, O’Keefe Media Group disclosed internal documents that uncover Disney’s Gender Expression and Transitioning programs. The G.E.T. program advocates for modifying one’s natural body, and the documents further expose Disney’s health insurance plans covering genital mutilation surgeries. Per James O’Keefe: REVEALED: O’Keefe Media reveals internal videos and documents exposing…
Track Coach Sues After Allegedly Being Fired For Opposing Policy Allowing Male Athletes In Female Sports
by Daily Caller
An Oregon high school track and field coach filed a lawsuit Thursday claiming he was improperly fired after stating that biological males had an unfair advantage against female athletes. John Parks was fired in June after sending a letter to the Oregon School Activities Association (OSAA) suggesting the regulatory agency…
“They’re Starting Brutal Attacks”: James Carville Says Cackling Kamala’s “Best Day” of the Campaign Is Already Behind Her
by The Liberty Daily
Democratic strategist James Carville on Wednesday declared the “best day” of Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential run is already behind her. Biden abruptly withdrew from the presidential race on Sunday and endorsed Harris, who is running based on a Democratic Party insider vote with almost no primary voter approval, after…
5 Ways Kamala Harris’s Democrat and Media Enablers Are Gaslighting America
by Breitbart
Vice President Kamala Harris’s Democrat and mainstream media allies are gaslighting American voters in five ways as her presidential campaign gets underway with just over 100 days to election day. The manipulation is being carried out in various forms: the covering up of President Joe Biden’s apparent cognitive decline, claims…
Major Study of 9 Million Confirms COVID Shots Cause VAIDS
by Slay News
An explosive new study, which analyzed the data of nine million people, has sent shockwaves through the scientific community after proving that Covid mRNA shots are responsible for the global surge in cases of AIDS-like vaccine-acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (VAIDS). The peer-reviewed study was conducted by a team of world-renowned South…
The Secret Service Was Obviously Going to Be the Next Vehicle of the Deep State
by The Federalist
Was the assassination attempt a failure because Trump survived? Or was it a failure because he was shot in the first place? The since-resigned Secret Service director conceded before House lawmakers Monday that this month’s shooting of former President Donald Trump was the worst agency security failure since President Ronald…
Emhoff’s Ex Opens up About Kamala Parenting Her Kids
by Headline USA
Kerstin Emhoff, the first wife of Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff, has spoken up about the non-existent attacks aimed at Vice President Kamala Harris for having no biological children. In remarks to CNN on Thursday, Emhoff claimed that Harris has acted as a parent to her children, Ella and Cole Emhoff,…
Illegal Alien ‘Got-Away’ Accused of Killing Nashville Restaurateur Matt Carney
by Breitbart
An illegal alien “got-away” has been accused of killing 42-year-old Matthew Carney, the owner of the Smokin Thighs restaurant in Nashville, Tennessee, in a hit-and-run crash. Ulises Raigoz-Martinez, a 24-year-old illegal alien from Mexico, has been charged with criminal homicide, tampering with evidence, vehicle theft, criminal impersonation, and evading arrest…
Kamala Ran S.F. Program That Helped Illegals Who Were Arrested Avoid Deportation
by Headline USA
As San Francisco’s district attorney, Kamala Harris ran a program that helped illegal immigrants arrested for drug crimes avoid deportation, get jobs, and even have their records expunged. The “Back on Track” program was run by the San Francisco district attorney’s office while Harris was district attorney from 2004 to…
Hamas Lovers Hit New Low in D.C. Protest
by PJ Media
So you saw the latest batch of Hamas lovers burning American flags, releasing maggots, and vandalizing our monuments in Washington, D.C., recently since Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited. My friend Stephen Kruiser discussed it a bit in his latest Morning Briefing, as did Athena Thorne, who went into more…
Congress Ordered Research into Military Covid Shot Injuries
by Infowars
Congress has included a provision in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for fiscal year 2024 directing the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) to investigate the negative health outcomes on military personnel following administration of the Covid vaccination. “Study and report on health conditions of members of the Armed Forces…
FBI Director Debunks Biden’s Claim That J6 ‘Gallows’ Were Designed to Hang Mike Pence
by Headline USA
President Joe Biden said in a recent speech that the infamous gallows built on Capitol Hill on Jan. 6, 2021, were “erected to hang Vice President Mike Pence.” That’s a strong claim coming from the sitting—at least for now—leader of the free world. Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., asked FBI Director…
Legal Group Launches Several Investigations Focusing On Kamala Harris’ Record, Use of Campaign Funds
by Trending Politics
“A lot of her tough on crime reputation goes to her prosecution when she was San Francisco DA, individuals who use marijuana and other sorts of things,” AFL President Dan Epstein said in a statement to Fox News. “Our investigation, however, makes it very clear that Kamala Harris does not…
Kamala Harris Once Mocked Trump’s Warning of Terrorists Crossing Through Border
by Daily Caller
Vice President Kamala Harris mocked the idea that a border wall was necessary to keep terrorists from entering the country during a February 2019 interview in New Hampshire. During the sit-down interview with WMUR-TV, then-Democratic California Sen. Harris mocked President Donald Trump’s assertion that a massive border wall between the…
Ultra-Processed Foods Are Harming Children: What’s Being Done About It?
by The Epoch Times
Ultra-processed foods have become a significant part of many children’s diets, and it may come as no surprise that such foods come with a cost. A cross-sectional study published in JAMA in May revealed that children who consumed high amounts of ultra-processed foods exhibited higher body mass index, waist circumference,…
Democrats Urge OpenAI to Allow Government Access to Models Before They Go Public
by Reclaim the Net
Five Democrat senators have penned a letter to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, as a form of not-so-subtle pressure to commit “to making its next foundation model available to US Government agencies for pre-deployment testing, review, analysis, and assessment.” But, “pre-deployment testing by government agencies?” Are these guys sure this is…
These Important Election Integrity Initiatives Might Be On Your 2024 Ballot
by The Federalist
From voter ID to mail-in voting, these proposed ballot measures could significantly alter the way states administer their elections. While most political pundits are focused on the pending matchup between former President Donald Trump and (presumably) Vice President Kamala Harris, a major facet of the 2024 contest that’s not getting…
News from across the conservative media sphere! Subscribe for free to the brand new Based Underground Newsletter for a daily uncensored recap of the news and opinions that are most important to American patriots.