Based Underground is now a conservative news aggregator AND curated newsletter.
(Mises)—The wordsmiths at the Federal Reserve wisely omitted the line about a “sound and resilient” banking system in its statement on January 31. That same day shares of New York Community Bank plunged when the bank announced a loss of thirty-six cents per share when analysts expected earnings of twenty-seven cents a share for the fourth quarter.
Internal or external auditors occasionally comb through individual loans in a bank’s portfolio and make judgments as to whether those loans are worth what the bank says they are worth due to lower appraised values and other issues either particular to an individual property or the market as a whole. Bankers then, begrudgingly, set aside earnings for potential loan losses.
- Preserve your retirement with physical precious metals. Receive your free gold guide from Genesis Precious Metals to learn how.
In the case of the real estate loans at New York Community Bank, loan examiners must have told senior management to increase the bank’s loan loss provision by 790 percent to $552 million. This balance sheet expense drove the fourth-quarter loss and caused the bank to cut its dividend.
“The bank reported a near $2 billion increase in criticized multifamily loans—debt with a probability of default,” wrote Suzannah Cavanagh for the Real Deal. “Of its $37 billion multifamily loan book, which comprises 44 percent of its total portfolio, 8 percent was marked criticized in the quarter.” The bank also reported a $42 million net charge-off—debt unlikely to be paid back—for an office loan on which the borrower stopped paying interest.
The bank’s chief financial officer John Pinto pooh-poohed the loan carnage, saying, “We had higher levels of substandard [loans] throughout the Financial Crisis, throughout the pandemic. The rise in substandard loans does not lead directly to specific losses.”
Hope Springs Eternal
Like the 2008 financial crisis, what happens in the US isn’t staying in the US. Tokyo-based Aozora Bank said losses in its US office’s loan portfolio will likely lead to a net loss for the year ending in March, the Wall Street Journal reports. Also, the private Swiss bank Julius Baer took a roughly $700 million provision on loans made to Austrian property landlord Signa Group. The bank said shutting down the unit was what made the loans, and the chief executive has resigned.
Jay Powell made no mention of the New York Community Bank’s news in his prepared remarks, and reporters didn’t ask him about the bank’s troubles during the Q and A. There were no questions concerning the Bank Term Funding Program that will be sunsetted March 11 despite having risen to record highs. According to the Wall Street Journal’s Andrew Ackerman, the popularity of the program was not because of new stresses on banks. But reportedly, “some banks had recently figured out a way to game the program by pocketing the difference between what they pay to borrow the funds and what they can earn from parking the funds at the central bank as overnight deposits.” On January 31, banks had borrowed more than $165 billion from the facility.
It’s doubtful there are no new stresses on banks. New York Community Bank is not an anomaly.
To that point, real estate investor Barry Sternlicht told a conference crowd…
We have a problem in real estate. In every sector of real estate, not just office, because of the 500 basis point increase in rates that was vertical. The office market has an existential crisis right now . . . it’s a $3 trillion dollar asset class that’s probably worth $1.8 trillion [now]. There’s $1.2 trillion of losses spread somewhere, and nobody knows exactly where it all is.
Sternlicht mentioned a project in New York that was purchased for $200 million that he thought was now worth just $30 million, encumbered by a $100 million loan.
Harold Bordwin, a principal at Keen-Summit Capital Partners LLC in New York, which specializes in renegotiating distressed properties, told Bloomberg, “Banks’ balance sheets aren’t accounting for the fact that there’s lots of real estate on there that’s not going to pay off at maturity.”
Bordwin went on to say, “Banks—community banks, regional banks—have been really slow to mark things to market because they didn’t have to, they were holding them to maturity. They are playing games with what is the real value of these assets” (emphasis added).
“The percentage of loans that banks have so far been reported as delinquent are a drop in the bucket compared to the defaults that will occur throughout 2024 and 2025,” David Aviram, principal at Maverick Real Estate Partners told Bloomberg. “Banks remain exposed to these significant risks, and the potential decline in interest rates in the next year won’t solve bank problems.”
The plan for the Bank Term Funding Program was hatched in haste over a weekend in March of last year in the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failures (Signature’s assets were purchased by New York Community Bank). To hide their embarrassment over banks using the facility for risk-free interest rate arbitrage, they say they are shutting the program down because there is no stress in the banking system.
There is stress aplenty in the banking world. As Murray Rothbard wrote in The Mystery of Banking, “Fractional reserve bank credit expansion is always shaky, for the more extensive its inflationary creation of new money, the more likely it will be to suffer contraction and subsequent deflation.”
While bankers and regulators have their heads in the sand, the contraction has already begun.
About the Author
Douglas French is President Emeritus of the Mises Institute, author of Early Speculative Bubbles & Increases in the Money Supply, and author of Walk Away: The Rise and Fall of the Home-Ownership Myth. He received his master’s degree in economics from UNLV, studying under both Professor Murray Rothbard and Professor Hans-Hermann Hoppe. His website is DouglasInVegas.com.
TRENDING ARTICLES
OMG: O’Keefe Media Group Exposes Disney’s “Gender Expression Transitioning” Program
by Liberty One News
On Thursday, O’Keefe Media Group disclosed internal documents that uncover Disney’s Gender Expression and Transitioning programs. The G.E.T. program advocates for modifying one’s natural body, and the documents further expose Disney’s health insurance plans covering genital mutilation surgeries. Per James O’Keefe: REVEALED: O’Keefe Media reveals internal videos and documents exposing…
Track Coach Sues After Allegedly Being Fired For Opposing Policy Allowing Male Athletes In Female Sports
by Daily Caller
An Oregon high school track and field coach filed a lawsuit Thursday claiming he was improperly fired after stating that biological males had an unfair advantage against female athletes. John Parks was fired in June after sending a letter to the Oregon School Activities Association (OSAA) suggesting the regulatory agency…
“They’re Starting Brutal Attacks”: James Carville Says Cackling Kamala’s “Best Day” of the Campaign Is Already Behind Her
by The Liberty Daily
Democratic strategist James Carville on Wednesday declared the “best day” of Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential run is already behind her. Biden abruptly withdrew from the presidential race on Sunday and endorsed Harris, who is running based on a Democratic Party insider vote with almost no primary voter approval, after…
5 Ways Kamala Harris’s Democrat and Media Enablers Are Gaslighting America
by Breitbart
Vice President Kamala Harris’s Democrat and mainstream media allies are gaslighting American voters in five ways as her presidential campaign gets underway with just over 100 days to election day. The manipulation is being carried out in various forms: the covering up of President Joe Biden’s apparent cognitive decline, claims…
Major Study of 9 Million Confirms COVID Shots Cause VAIDS
by Slay News
An explosive new study, which analyzed the data of nine million people, has sent shockwaves through the scientific community after proving that Covid mRNA shots are responsible for the global surge in cases of AIDS-like vaccine-acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (VAIDS). The peer-reviewed study was conducted by a team of world-renowned South…
The Secret Service Was Obviously Going to Be the Next Vehicle of the Deep State
by The Federalist
Was the assassination attempt a failure because Trump survived? Or was it a failure because he was shot in the first place? The since-resigned Secret Service director conceded before House lawmakers Monday that this month’s shooting of former President Donald Trump was the worst agency security failure since President Ronald…
Emhoff’s Ex Opens up About Kamala Parenting Her Kids
by Headline USA
Kerstin Emhoff, the first wife of Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff, has spoken up about the non-existent attacks aimed at Vice President Kamala Harris for having no biological children. In remarks to CNN on Thursday, Emhoff claimed that Harris has acted as a parent to her children, Ella and Cole Emhoff,…
Illegal Alien ‘Got-Away’ Accused of Killing Nashville Restaurateur Matt Carney
by Breitbart
An illegal alien “got-away” has been accused of killing 42-year-old Matthew Carney, the owner of the Smokin Thighs restaurant in Nashville, Tennessee, in a hit-and-run crash. Ulises Raigoz-Martinez, a 24-year-old illegal alien from Mexico, has been charged with criminal homicide, tampering with evidence, vehicle theft, criminal impersonation, and evading arrest…
Kamala Ran S.F. Program That Helped Illegals Who Were Arrested Avoid Deportation
by Headline USA
As San Francisco’s district attorney, Kamala Harris ran a program that helped illegal immigrants arrested for drug crimes avoid deportation, get jobs, and even have their records expunged. The “Back on Track” program was run by the San Francisco district attorney’s office while Harris was district attorney from 2004 to…
Hamas Lovers Hit New Low in D.C. Protest
by PJ Media
So you saw the latest batch of Hamas lovers burning American flags, releasing maggots, and vandalizing our monuments in Washington, D.C., recently since Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited. My friend Stephen Kruiser discussed it a bit in his latest Morning Briefing, as did Athena Thorne, who went into more…
Congress Ordered Research into Military Covid Shot Injuries
by Infowars
Congress has included a provision in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for fiscal year 2024 directing the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) to investigate the negative health outcomes on military personnel following administration of the Covid vaccination. “Study and report on health conditions of members of the Armed Forces…
FBI Director Debunks Biden’s Claim That J6 ‘Gallows’ Were Designed to Hang Mike Pence
by Headline USA
President Joe Biden said in a recent speech that the infamous gallows built on Capitol Hill on Jan. 6, 2021, were “erected to hang Vice President Mike Pence.” That’s a strong claim coming from the sitting—at least for now—leader of the free world. Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., asked FBI Director…
Legal Group Launches Several Investigations Focusing On Kamala Harris’ Record, Use of Campaign Funds
by Trending Politics
“A lot of her tough on crime reputation goes to her prosecution when she was San Francisco DA, individuals who use marijuana and other sorts of things,” AFL President Dan Epstein said in a statement to Fox News. “Our investigation, however, makes it very clear that Kamala Harris does not…
Kamala Harris Once Mocked Trump’s Warning of Terrorists Crossing Through Border
by Daily Caller
Vice President Kamala Harris mocked the idea that a border wall was necessary to keep terrorists from entering the country during a February 2019 interview in New Hampshire. During the sit-down interview with WMUR-TV, then-Democratic California Sen. Harris mocked President Donald Trump’s assertion that a massive border wall between the…
Ultra-Processed Foods Are Harming Children: What’s Being Done About It?
by The Epoch Times
Ultra-processed foods have become a significant part of many children’s diets, and it may come as no surprise that such foods come with a cost. A cross-sectional study published in JAMA in May revealed that children who consumed high amounts of ultra-processed foods exhibited higher body mass index, waist circumference,…
Democrats Urge OpenAI to Allow Government Access to Models Before They Go Public
by Reclaim the Net
Five Democrat senators have penned a letter to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, as a form of not-so-subtle pressure to commit “to making its next foundation model available to US Government agencies for pre-deployment testing, review, analysis, and assessment.” But, “pre-deployment testing by government agencies?” Are these guys sure this is…
These Important Election Integrity Initiatives Might Be On Your 2024 Ballot
by The Federalist
From voter ID to mail-in voting, these proposed ballot measures could significantly alter the way states administer their elections. While most political pundits are focused on the pending matchup between former President Donald Trump and (presumably) Vice President Kamala Harris, a major facet of the 2024 contest that’s not getting…
News from across the conservative media sphere! Subscribe for free to the brand new Based Underground Newsletter for a daily uncensored recap of the news and opinions that are most important to American patriots.