Based Underground is now a conservative news aggregator AND curated newsletter.
As a banker and economist, I am riveted by the expeditious demise of Silicon Valley Bank and other institutions. Were these crashes due to bank mismanagement, as many pundits as well as regulators have posited? Were they due to not managing risk, not hedging, and unfettered exposure to sectors of concern? Or maybe something else is afoot, a movement that may have begun a decade ago.
Recall the Great Recession (2008–10), buoyed by a housing and mortgage crisis created by imprudent lending practices, and then the music stopped. In its inimitable wisdom, the government came in legislatively and regulatorily, via Dodd-Frank, crafting what they thought was a belt-and-suspenders approach to avoiding another debacle.
- Preserve your retirement with physical precious metals. Receive your free gold guide from Genesis Precious Metals to learn how.
Certain banks were redefined as systematically important financial institutions (SIFI), to be protected at all costs, while establishing a guided risk regimen. Whether due to the additional compliance costs of Dodd-Frank or demographic changes in the market or the need for better economies of scale, we witnessed a consolidation of smaller banks, reducing the gross number from 7,700 to 4,200 over the subsequent ten years.
The US banking system—with its diversity of institutions, from money centers to community banks, harboring in urban and rural settings—is unique on the world stage. We have vastly more banks than any other country, both by design and opportunity. This has contributed to entrepreneurship through local lending, supporting farming communities, and a general competitive economy.
The increasingly reductive nature of this industry doesn’t appear to be just another macroshakeout. Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) was a well-run institution, yet within days, it went from hero to zero. CEO Greg Becker and his team were accused of mismanagement, including being accused of precipitously monetizing stock options.
Hopefully, a little perspective will be insightful.
SVB, like most US banks, has seen over the last twenty years a consistent reduction in relative lending activity, as measured by loan-to-deposit ratios. Decades ago, the typical bank targeted a ratio of 80 to 90 percent; the spread between interest collected on loans and interest paid on deposits was the core bank revenue model. To manage lending and overall balance sheet levels, the regulators would toggle the “reserve requirement“—namely, the amount of on-hand cash that would be needed to address deposit withdrawals.
To stimulate the economy with new lending, the regulators gradually reduced the reserve requirement to zilch, nada, zero, meaning that the banks no longer had to maintain a level of ready cash for withdrawals. Now consider that with the proliferation of nonbank lenders, the current loan-to-deposit ratio sits at roughly 62 percent nationwide. With no cash requirement, the banks (including SVB) have built extensive securities portfolios, largely gilts (treasury- and government-guaranteed mortgage securities). Reallocating the asset side of their balance sheets into purportedly risk-free assets should have been considered a very conservative portfolio move. In fact, looking at the SVB balance sheet at the time of its takeover, its loan-to-deposit ratio was a mere 43 percent. Most would say, “Good on you.”
Page back to Dodd-Frank and its imposition of stress tests, capitalization levels, and risk assessments. It failed significantly in addressing the changing balance sheet composition of banks, from ledgers dominated by “credit risk assets” (i.e., loans) to the significant inclusion of assets subject to “interest rate risk.” With the recent quantitative tightening (i.e., rising rates), so-called risk-free assets were fixed rate, longer duration investments, which moved inversely with interest rates. As such, the “conservative gilt” portfolios ended up as a financial hara-kiri. By recognizing the current value of the “gilts” given rate moves, such portfolios incurred billions of dollars of losses. And based on the size of such portfolios vis-à-vis overall asset levels, coupled with leveraged banks’ equity, to which the losses are allocated, banks would find themselves either capital-impaired or rendered insolvent.
Simply, Dodd-Frank, in its feigned brilliance in correcting early deficiencies, missed the mark of monitoring “interest rate risk,” now the bane of the current banking environment.
Further, SVB is not alone in its broken-gilt affair. Reviewing call reports of the top two hundred banks in the US, nearly two-thirds find themselves in a comparable position with pro forma capital impairment. In fact, in April 2023, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that as of quarter three of 2022, 722 banks in the US reflected unrealized losses of over 50 percent of their capital. An industry in distress? You betcha.
Banks are highly regulated, compelled to ongoing reporting and subject to strict regulation and legislative tomes like Dodd-Frank. There are a battery of regulatory bodies overseeing them, from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to the Federal Reserve Bank, the Department of the Treasury, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council, and others. Yet, disturbingly, in their collective wisdom, they did not see the confluence of balance sheet composition, high leverage, and no reserve requirement in the wake of the rapid Federal Reserve rate hikes. Couple this with the rising risk in loan portfolios, particularly commercial real estate and consumer portfolios, and it’s powder keg time.
These are not “aha” observations. Banks report, and the regulators have a fiduciary responsibility to monitor and manage the space. Portfolio quality and monetary policy should not be surprises. Events are dynamic. Yet, one wonders whether the industry status is the result of regulator ignorance bordering on insanity, or might this be something orchestrated with intent?
Recall the Bidenette nominee for the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, banking’s primary regulator, Saule Omarova. She had some unique views on how the economy and the banking system should run and authored an intriguing paper entitled “The People’s Ledger: How to Democratize Money and Finance the Economy.” Simply, her proposition involved moving all customer deposits held at our four thousand plus banks to be redeposited onto the Fed’s balance sheet, where everyone would hold their account.
It would then become easier for the government to “drop in” helicopter money and facilitate payments. And with banks no longer holding deposits, such would tap into the Fed, borrowing funds so to make loans to their respective borrowers, all in the spirit of efficiency and targeting funds into the economy where needed.
Panacea?
Consider, also referenced in the paper, how the Fed would have the ability to drop money into accounts directly. Alternatively, it could remove money from accounts if the Fed and the govvies believe that there are inflationary pressures and there’s a need to restrict the money supply. On the lending side, due to the “mother, may I” nature of banks borrowing from the Fed to lend to their borrowers, policy makers could weigh in. Industries in favor, like the green industry, would have access to credit, whereas industries out of favor, like fossil fuels, may need to borrow outside the banking system. Ms. Omarova’s People’s Ledger bank could embark on redlining.
In effect, Ms. Omarova’s postulate seems Orwellian—the centralization of the banking spigot under the auspices of efficiency and fairness. Ultimately, she withdrew her nomination as it became clear she would not be confirmed.
But her paper resonates as she envisaged a centralization, consolidating an industry for policy purposes. There are certainly those who subscribe to central control; thus, might not a banking crisis (i.e., reducing bank numbers) allow the People’s Ledger to manifest?
So, do we find a crisis due to exogenous circumstances or thoughtful endogeny? A crisis of neglect or one carefully planned?
Finally, it is noted that the release of FedNow, the Federal Reserve’s payment platform, is scheduled for July 2023, which looks incredibly like the People’s Ledger.
Coincidence?
Article cross-posted from Mises.
TRENDING ARTICLES
OMG: O’Keefe Media Group Exposes Disney’s “Gender Expression Transitioning” Program
by Liberty One News
On Thursday, O’Keefe Media Group disclosed internal documents that uncover Disney’s Gender Expression and Transitioning programs. The G.E.T. program advocates for modifying one’s natural body, and the documents further expose Disney’s health insurance plans covering genital mutilation surgeries. Per James O’Keefe: REVEALED: O’Keefe Media reveals internal videos and documents exposing…
Track Coach Sues After Allegedly Being Fired For Opposing Policy Allowing Male Athletes In Female Sports
by Daily Caller
An Oregon high school track and field coach filed a lawsuit Thursday claiming he was improperly fired after stating that biological males had an unfair advantage against female athletes. John Parks was fired in June after sending a letter to the Oregon School Activities Association (OSAA) suggesting the regulatory agency…
“They’re Starting Brutal Attacks”: James Carville Says Cackling Kamala’s “Best Day” of the Campaign Is Already Behind Her
by The Liberty Daily
Democratic strategist James Carville on Wednesday declared the “best day” of Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential run is already behind her. Biden abruptly withdrew from the presidential race on Sunday and endorsed Harris, who is running based on a Democratic Party insider vote with almost no primary voter approval, after…
5 Ways Kamala Harris’s Democrat and Media Enablers Are Gaslighting America
by Breitbart
Vice President Kamala Harris’s Democrat and mainstream media allies are gaslighting American voters in five ways as her presidential campaign gets underway with just over 100 days to election day. The manipulation is being carried out in various forms: the covering up of President Joe Biden’s apparent cognitive decline, claims…
Major Study of 9 Million Confirms COVID Shots Cause VAIDS
by Slay News
An explosive new study, which analyzed the data of nine million people, has sent shockwaves through the scientific community after proving that Covid mRNA shots are responsible for the global surge in cases of AIDS-like vaccine-acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (VAIDS). The peer-reviewed study was conducted by a team of world-renowned South…
The Secret Service Was Obviously Going to Be the Next Vehicle of the Deep State
by The Federalist
Was the assassination attempt a failure because Trump survived? Or was it a failure because he was shot in the first place? The since-resigned Secret Service director conceded before House lawmakers Monday that this month’s shooting of former President Donald Trump was the worst agency security failure since President Ronald…
Emhoff’s Ex Opens up About Kamala Parenting Her Kids
by Headline USA
Kerstin Emhoff, the first wife of Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff, has spoken up about the non-existent attacks aimed at Vice President Kamala Harris for having no biological children. In remarks to CNN on Thursday, Emhoff claimed that Harris has acted as a parent to her children, Ella and Cole Emhoff,…
Illegal Alien ‘Got-Away’ Accused of Killing Nashville Restaurateur Matt Carney
by Breitbart
An illegal alien “got-away” has been accused of killing 42-year-old Matthew Carney, the owner of the Smokin Thighs restaurant in Nashville, Tennessee, in a hit-and-run crash. Ulises Raigoz-Martinez, a 24-year-old illegal alien from Mexico, has been charged with criminal homicide, tampering with evidence, vehicle theft, criminal impersonation, and evading arrest…
Kamala Ran S.F. Program That Helped Illegals Who Were Arrested Avoid Deportation
by Headline USA
As San Francisco’s district attorney, Kamala Harris ran a program that helped illegal immigrants arrested for drug crimes avoid deportation, get jobs, and even have their records expunged. The “Back on Track” program was run by the San Francisco district attorney’s office while Harris was district attorney from 2004 to…
Hamas Lovers Hit New Low in D.C. Protest
by PJ Media
So you saw the latest batch of Hamas lovers burning American flags, releasing maggots, and vandalizing our monuments in Washington, D.C., recently since Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited. My friend Stephen Kruiser discussed it a bit in his latest Morning Briefing, as did Athena Thorne, who went into more…
Congress Ordered Research into Military Covid Shot Injuries
by Infowars
Congress has included a provision in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for fiscal year 2024 directing the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) to investigate the negative health outcomes on military personnel following administration of the Covid vaccination. “Study and report on health conditions of members of the Armed Forces…
FBI Director Debunks Biden’s Claim That J6 ‘Gallows’ Were Designed to Hang Mike Pence
by Headline USA
President Joe Biden said in a recent speech that the infamous gallows built on Capitol Hill on Jan. 6, 2021, were “erected to hang Vice President Mike Pence.” That’s a strong claim coming from the sitting—at least for now—leader of the free world. Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., asked FBI Director…
Legal Group Launches Several Investigations Focusing On Kamala Harris’ Record, Use of Campaign Funds
by Trending Politics
“A lot of her tough on crime reputation goes to her prosecution when she was San Francisco DA, individuals who use marijuana and other sorts of things,” AFL President Dan Epstein said in a statement to Fox News. “Our investigation, however, makes it very clear that Kamala Harris does not…
Kamala Harris Once Mocked Trump’s Warning of Terrorists Crossing Through Border
by Daily Caller
Vice President Kamala Harris mocked the idea that a border wall was necessary to keep terrorists from entering the country during a February 2019 interview in New Hampshire. During the sit-down interview with WMUR-TV, then-Democratic California Sen. Harris mocked President Donald Trump’s assertion that a massive border wall between the…
Ultra-Processed Foods Are Harming Children: What’s Being Done About It?
by The Epoch Times
Ultra-processed foods have become a significant part of many children’s diets, and it may come as no surprise that such foods come with a cost. A cross-sectional study published in JAMA in May revealed that children who consumed high amounts of ultra-processed foods exhibited higher body mass index, waist circumference,…
Democrats Urge OpenAI to Allow Government Access to Models Before They Go Public
by Reclaim the Net
Five Democrat senators have penned a letter to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, as a form of not-so-subtle pressure to commit “to making its next foundation model available to US Government agencies for pre-deployment testing, review, analysis, and assessment.” But, “pre-deployment testing by government agencies?” Are these guys sure this is…
These Important Election Integrity Initiatives Might Be On Your 2024 Ballot
by The Federalist
From voter ID to mail-in voting, these proposed ballot measures could significantly alter the way states administer their elections. While most political pundits are focused on the pending matchup between former President Donald Trump and (presumably) Vice President Kamala Harris, a major facet of the 2024 contest that’s not getting…
News from across the conservative media sphere! Subscribe for free to the brand new Based Underground Newsletter for a daily uncensored recap of the news and opinions that are most important to American patriots.