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On May 19, 2021 the LA Times published a column that is representative of the basic arguments for endorsing lockdowns going forward titled “The evidence is clear — COVID lockdowns saved lives without harming economies.”
Article by Ethan Yang from AIER.
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The column proclaims in large italic font,
“Lockdown should be considered as an effective public health intervention to halt epidemic progression.”
The piece certainly puts forward a case that may be somewhat plausible on its face but after further investigation might be able to pass as scholarly malpractice. The column lays out two major points. The first being that lockdowns played an important role in reducing caseloads. The second point is that the economic damage of lockdowns was relatively inconsequential as the voluntary actions of individuals were largely responsible for the economic downturn.
These are not novel or fringe arguments but talking points that have been parroted throughout the pandemic. The column itself rightly notes that there has and will continue to be a heated debate about the efficacy of lockdown policies for the foreseeable future. Although Covid-19 lockdowns are behind us, the precedent has been set for lockdowns to be a new shiny tool to be used against future pandemics. This horrifying reality is exactly why lockdowns as an idea must not be forgotten. They must be thoroughly discredited, starting with this column.
Do Lockdowns Reduce Caseloads?
It should first be said that reducing deaths is a far more important objective than simply reducing cases, especially when it comes to a highly contagious but relatively mild disease like Covid-19 which only severely affects vulnerable populations. With this in mind, it seems that taking precautions to shield the vulnerable while allowing healthy individuals to live their lives with common sense would be a far better policy. Just look at this graph.
However, let’s bite and say that it’s best that caseloads remain as low as possible if it is within our power to do so.
The column relies on a series of studies that demonstrate a correlation with lockdown policies such as stay-at-home orders and business closures with drops in the daily increase of cases. It asserts,
“It makes sense, therefore to examine the evidence — or rather, gather ammunition for the coming debate.
Numerous studies from across the world have found that lockdowns succeeded in suppressing transmission rates.”
One of the first issues that arise is that studies the column uses to make its point are clearly cherry-picked as they’re not only dozens of studies saying the contrary, but clear methodological shortcomings. The first one is titled “The Efficacy of Lockdown Against COVID-19: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis.” The study asserts that lockdowns were effective in reducing caseloads after running an average of the performance of 202 countries from January 10, 2020, to May 10, 2020. This study was one of the first attempts at piecing together empirical evidence at the very start of the pandemic, which should tell you all you need to know. The study even has a disclaimer that reads,
“For these reasons, we highlight the importance of and need for further investigations on this topic, which may focus on more specific territorial or climatic subsamples, or on how governments have implemented lockdown policies.”
Plugging in hundreds of countries without any regard to context whether it be timing, geographic location, or even the types of policies involved at what would be just the beginning of the pandemic is a quick way to start a conversation, but nothing further. We now know much more.
A similar issue comes up in the second study the author uses to prove his point. The study is titled “Is Lockdown Effective in Limiting SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic Progression?—a Cross-Country Comparative Evaluation Using Epidemiokinetic Tools.” It’s already off on the wrong foot as its timeline runs from February 23, 2020, to June 14, 2020. Furthermore, the study simply notes the initial fall in daily new cases in a number of countries that implemented lockdowns with Sweden and the United States as a comparison as a non-lockdown country and variable lockdown country respectively.
Again no consideration for context when it comes to timing, social behavior, or government policy. Furthermore, as we all know the pandemic and the use of lockdowns didn’t end in the summer of 2020. Here is an expanded timeline with the countries included in the study alongside the addition of Belgium which I added as another example of a European country with strict lockdowns but a poor performance in mitigating Covid-19.
This brings us to the most important point regarding lockdown policies and what seems to be captured in these studies but not properly acknowledged, which is voluntary behavior to reduce the spread of Covid-19. The following data was pulled from a comprehensive analysis published by the Heritage Foundation that examined key statistics compiled throughout the pandemic.
As we can see, regardless of the implementation of stay-at-home orders, people voluntarily reduced their activity. States that implemented stay-at-home orders and other lockdown policies clearly saw greater (and unnecessary) reductions in movement. However the reductions in movement are nearly identical during peak spikes in cases and deaths. In other words, people voluntarily practiced social measures in response to spikes in deaths and cases.
This is congruent with a study published by a team of Stanford researchers that compared 8 lockdown countries with two counterfactuals, South Korea and Sweden. The study found that there are certainly benefits to implementing policy interventions but the benefits of aggressive policies such as lockdowns compared to less intrusive policies undertaken by South Korea and Sweden are minimal. This is without factoring in the collateral damage and the fact that in some contexts, lockdown policies may actually increase caseloads because they force people to gather in private residences, which are often less well-ventilated and more cramped.
This brings us to what is hopefully an emerging consensus that lockdowns, for whatever isolated marginal benefits they provide, are essentially swinging a sledgehammer to kill a spider.
Are Lockdowns Safe for the Economy?
The second major point in the column, that lockdowns are not a major contributor to economic damage, may seem ridiculous at first glance but is actually a relatively common argument. Jack Nicastro and I co-wrote an article for AIER arguing against this assertion in detail here. Our main conclusion was that the past economic downturn was the largest recession in modern history. The one major thing that was different this time was lockdowns, which actively work against economic recovery. We quoted the International Monetary Fund by writing,
“Under the assumption that the pandemic and required containment peaks in the second quarter for most countries in the world, and recedes in the second half of this year, in the April World Economic Outlook we project global growth in 2020 to fall to -3 percent. This is a downgrade of 6.3 percentage points from January 2020, a major revision over a very short period. This makes the Great Lockdown the worst recession since the Great Depression, and far worse than the Global Financial Crisis.”
The main assertion that supports the idea that lockdowns are not responsible for the economic downturn is that voluntary behavior is largely the main causal factor in the recession. If you remember the mobility data I referenced previously to challenge the idea that lockdowns were necessary to contain the spread of Covid-19, you will have remembered that people voluntarily reduced activity.
In order to support its case the column cites a working paper published by NBER titled “Fear, Lockdown, and Diversion: Comparing Drivers of Pandemic Economic Decline 2020.”
The paper notes that people voluntarily reacted to Covid-19 by reducing foot traffic before the lockdowns were implemented and did not increase significantly once lockdowns were lifted. This is congruent with the mobility data I referenced above. This would suggest that lockdowns had a minimal economic effect because people voluntarily stopped patronizing businesses. Of course, a closer look at the data reveals that some non-lockdown states had foot traffic return to normal as the summer came.
The problem with this particular study is of course its timeline, which only measures data from March 1 – May 16. This is when fear and uncertainty about the virus were at an all-time high, which is why voluntary reductions in foot traffic were also high with or without lockdowns. If the timeline is expanded, voluntary behavior and state-mandated behavior begin to diverge, only reaching parity during spikes in deaths and transmission. We can see this divergence after May 16 when many states lifted their stay-at-home orders and saw increases in mobility. During major spikes in transmission and deaths, people voluntarily reduced mobility to parity with states that issued lockdowns. This is most observable during the past Winter season.
To further demonstrate the negative economic consequences of lockdowns, a working paper published by NBER in January of 2021 examines the effect of California’s nonessential business closures on sales data up to Q2 of 2020. The paper notes
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“The results suggest that local implementation and enforcement of lockdown restrictions and voluntary behavioral responses as reactions to the perceived local COVID-19 spread both played a role, but enforcement of mandatory restrictions may have had a larger impact on sales losses.”
Furthermore, Covid-19 is a less deadly disease than the 1957-1958 Asian Flu and especially the 1918 Spanish Flu which like all pandemics were handled without lockdowns. The late and great doctor Donald Henderson and colleagues published a paper on the US response to the Asian Flu which notes,
“Despite the large numbers of cases, the 1957 outbreak did not appear to have a significant impact on the U.S. economy.’’
An article published by two economists in VOX-EU, a policy portal of the Centre for Policy Research, notes that during the 1918 Spanish Flu the economy actually grew slightly. This was of course due to World War I and forced labor for the war effort but they ultimately conclude,
“What lessons can we glean from the 1918 pandemic for today? Obviously, we are not advocating for another war, or that workers be encouraged to work in unsafe conditions that may heighten their exposure to the virus. But it is useful to remember that a global pandemic doesn’t inevitably lead to a grave economic recession or depression. More specifically, a large expansion in government demand can go a long way in softening the economic impact of a crisis that clearly threatens to reduce consumption and private investment.”
So perhaps the government can help by providing financial aid to struggling businesses and families to soften the blow of a pandemic. Government after all does know how to cut checks. However, there is absolutely no reason to believe that the government can shut down the entire economy without catastrophic consequences. The Covid-19 pandemic is associated with the worst economic downturn in modern history, worse than the Spanish Flu and the initial stages of the Great Depression. It shouldn’t be that difficult to see that lockdowns were responsible for that.
Key Takeaways
This has essentially been a very long-winded way of saying what AIER has been saying since day one. Lockdowns do not provide any meaningful benefit and they cause unnecessary collateral damage. Voluntary actions and light-handed accommodations to protect the vulnerable according to comprehensive analysis, not cherry-picked studies with overly short timelines, provide similar, if not better, virus mitigation compared to lockdown policies. Furthermore, contrary to what many keep trying to say, it is lockdowns that are the causal factor behind the unprecedented economic and social damage that has been dealt to society. On top of that, we haven’t even addressed the role of inflammatory and counterproductive messaging to sow unnecessary fear into American society. Of course, that’s a topic for another day.
Humans for our entire existence have lived alongside diseases. Society has become increasingly healthier through improvements in living standards and advancements in technology. Unilaterally and arbitrarily shutting down all of economic and social life was never part of the solution, nor should it ever be. Covid-19 has been the first test for these experimental lockdown policies and no rational observer should look back at the results and conclude that this is all worth trying again.
‘The Purge’ by Big Tech targets conservatives, including us
Just when we thought the Covid-19 lockdowns were ending and our ability to stay afloat was improving, censorship reared its ugly head.
For the last few months, NOQ Report, Conservative Playbook, and the American Conservative Movement have appealed to our readers for assistance in staying afloat through Covid-19 lockdowns. The downturn in the economy has limited our ability to generate proper ad revenue just as our traffic was skyrocketing. We had our first sustained stretch of three months with over a million visitors in November, December, and January, but February saw a dip.
It wasn’t just the shortened month. We expected that. We also expected the continuation of dropping traffic from “woke” Big Tech companies like Google, Facebook, and Twitter, but it has actually been much worse than anticipated. Our Twitter account was banned. Both of our YouTube accounts were banned. Facebook “fact-checks” everything we post. Spotify canceled us. Medium canceled us. Apple canceled us. Why? Because we believe in the truth prevailing, and that means we will continue to discuss “taboo” topics.
The 2020 presidential election was stolen. You can’t say that on Big Tech platforms without risking cancellation, but we’d rather get cancelled for telling the truth rather than staying around to repeat mainstream media’s lies. They have been covering it up since before the election and they’ve convinced the vast majority of conservative news outlets that they will be harmed if they continue to discuss voter fraud. We refuse to back down. The truth is the truth.
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The lies associated with Covid-19 are only slightly more prevalent than the suppression of valid scientific information that runs counter to the prescribed narrative. We should be allowed to ask questions about the vaccines, for example, as there is ample evidence for concern. One does not have to be an “anti-vaxxer” in order to want answers about vaccines that are still considered experimental and that have a track record in a short period of time of having side-effects, including death. One of our stories about the Johnson & Johnson “vaccine” causing blood clots was “fact-checked” and removed one day before the government hit the brakes on it. These questions and news items are not allowed on Big Tech which is just another reason we are getting canceled.
There are more topics that they refuse to allow. In turn, we refuse to stop discussing them. This is why we desperately need your help. The best way NOQ, CP, and ACM readers can help is to donate. Our Giving Fuel page makes it easy to donate one-time or monthly. Alternatively, you can donate through PayPal as well. We are pacing to be short by about $3700 per month in order to maintain operations.
The second way to help is to become a partner. We’ve strongly considered seeking angel investors in the past but because we were paying the bills, it didn’t seem necessary. Now, we’re struggling to pay the bills. We had 5,657,724 sessions on our website from November, 2020, through February, 2021. Our intention is to elevate that to higher levels this year by focusing on a strategy that relies on free speech rather than being beholden to progressive Big Tech companies.
During that four-month stretch, Twitter and Facebook accounted for about 20% of our traffic. We are actively working on operating as if that traffic is zero, replacing it with platforms that operate more freely such as Gab, Parler, and others. While we were never as dependent on Big Tech as most conservative sites, we’d like to be completely free from them. That doesn’t mean we will block them, but we refuse to be beholden to companies that absolutely despise us simply because of our political ideology.
We’re heading in the right direction and we believe we’re ready talk to patriotic investors who want to not only “get in on the action” but more importantly who want to help America hear the truth. Interested investors should contact me directly with the contact button above.
As the world spirals towards radical progressivism, the need for truthful journalism has never been greater. But in these times, we need as many conservative media voices as possible. Please help keep NOQ Report going.
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Five Things New “Preppers” Forget When Getting Ready for Bad Times Ahead
The preparedness community is growing faster than it has in decades. Even during peak times such as Y2K, the economic downturn of 2008, and Covid, the vast majority of Americans made sure they had plenty of toilet paper but didn’t really stockpile anything else.
Things have changed. There’s a growing anxiety in this presidential election year that has prompted more Americans to get prepared for crazy events in the future. Some of it is being driven by fearmongers, but there are valid concerns with the economy, food supply, pharmaceuticals, the energy grid, and mass rioting that have pushed average Americans into “prepper” mode.
There are degrees of preparedness. One does not have to be a full-blown “doomsday prepper” living off-grid in a secure Montana bunker in order to be ahead of the curve. In many ways, preparedness isn’t about being able to perfectly handle every conceivable situation. It’s about being less dependent on government for as long as possible. Those who have proper “preps” will not be waiting for FEMA to distribute emergency supplies to the desperate masses.
Below are five things people new to preparedness (and sometimes even those with experience) often forget as they get ready. All five are common sense notions that do not rely on doomsday in order to be useful. It may be nice to own a tank during the apocalypse but there’s not much you can do with it until things get really crazy. The recommendations below can have places in the lives of average Americans whether doomsday comes or not.
Note: The information provided by this publication or any related communications is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. We do not provide personalized investment, financial, or legal advice.
Secured Wealth
Whether in the bank or held in a retirement account, most Americans feel that their life’s savings is relatively secure. At least they did until the last couple of years when de-banking, geopolitical turmoil, and the threat of Central Bank Digital Currencies reared their ugly heads.
It behooves Americans to diversify their holdings. If there’s a triggering event or series of events that cripple the financial systems or devalue the U.S. Dollar, wealth can evaporate quickly. To hedge against potential turmoil, many Americans are looking in two directions: Crypto and physical precious metals.
There are huge advantages to cryptocurrencies, but there are also inherent risks because “virtual” money can become challenging to spend. Add in the push by central banks and governments to regulate or even replace cryptocurrencies with their own versions they control and the risks amplify. There’s nothing wrong with cryptocurrencies today but things can change rapidly.
As for physical precious metals, many Americans pay cash to keep plenty on hand in their safe. Rolling over or transferring retirement accounts into self-directed IRAs is also a popular option, but there are caveats. It can often take weeks or even months to get the gold and silver shipped if the owner chooses to close their account. This is why Genesis Gold Group stands out. Their relationship with the depositories allows for rapid closure and shipping, often in less than 10 days from the time the account holder makes their move. This can come in handy if things appear to be heading south.
Lots of Potable Water
One of the biggest shocks that hit new preppers is understanding how much potable water they need in order to survive. Experts claim one gallon of water per person per day is necessary. Even the most conservative estimates put it at over half-a-gallon. That means that for a family of four, they’ll need around 120 gallons of water to survive for a month if the taps turn off and the stores empty out.
Being near a fresh water source, whether it’s a river, lake, or well, is a best practice among experienced preppers. It’s necessary to have a water filter as well, even if the taps are still working. Many refuse to drink tap water even when there is no emergency. Berkey was our previous favorite but they’re under attack from regulators so the Alexapure systems are solid replacements.
For those in the city or away from fresh water sources, storage is the best option. This can be challenging because proper water storage containers take up a lot of room and are difficult to move if the need arises. For “bug in” situations, having a larger container that stores hundreds or even thousands of gallons is better than stacking 1-5 gallon containers. Unfortunately, they won’t be easily transportable and they can cost a lot to install.
Water is critical. If chaos erupts and water infrastructure is compromised, having a large backup supply can be lifesaving.
Pharmaceuticals and Medical Supplies
There are multiple threats specific to the medical supply chain. With Chinese and Indian imports accounting for over 90% of pharmaceutical ingredients in the United States, deteriorating relations could make it impossible to get the medicines and antibiotics many of us need.
Stocking up many prescription medications can be hard. Doctors generally do not like to prescribe large batches of drugs even if they are shelf-stable for extended periods of time. It is a best practice to ask your doctor if they can prescribe a larger amount. Today, some are sympathetic to concerns about pharmacies running out or becoming inaccessible. Tell them your concerns. It’s worth a shot. The worst they can do is say no.
If your doctor is unwilling to help you stock up on medicines, then Jase Medical is a good alternative. Through telehealth, they can prescribe daily meds or antibiotics that are shipped to your door. As proponents of medical freedom, they empathize with those who want to have enough medical supplies on hand in case things go wrong.
Energy Sources
The vast majority of Americans are locked into the grid. This has proven to be a massive liability when the grid goes down. Unfortunately, there are no inexpensive remedies.
Those living off-grid had to either spend a lot of money or effort (or both) to get their alternative energy sources like solar set up. For those who do not want to go so far, it’s still a best practice to have backup power sources. Diesel generators and portable solar panels are the two most popular, and while they’re not inexpensive they are not out of reach of most Americans who are concerned about being without power for extended periods of time.
Natural gas is another necessity for many, but that’s far more challenging to replace. Having alternatives for heating and cooking that can be powered if gas and electric grids go down is important. Have a backup for items that require power such as manual can openers. If you’re stuck eating canned foods for a while and all you have is an electric opener, you’ll have problems.
Don’t Forget the Protein
When most think about “prepping,” they think about their food supply. More Americans are turning to gardening and homesteading as ways to produce their own food. Others are working with local farmers and ranchers to purchase directly from the sources. This is a good idea whether doomsday comes or not, but it’s particularly important if the food supply chain is broken.
Most grocery stores have about one to two weeks worth of food, as do most American households. Grocers rely heavily on truckers to receive their ongoing shipments. In a crisis, the current process can fail. It behooves Americans for multiple reasons to localize their food purchases as much as possible.
Long-term storage is another popular option. Canned foods, MREs, and freeze dried meals are selling out quickly even as prices rise. But one component that is conspicuously absent in shelf-stable food is high-quality protein. Most survival food companies offer low quality “protein buckets” or cans of meat, but they are often barely edible.
Prepper All-Naturals offers premium cuts of steak that have been cooked sous vide and freeze dried to give them a 25-year shelf life. They offer Ribeye, NY Strip, and Tenderloin among others.
Having buckets of beans and rice is a good start, but keeping a solid supply of high-quality protein isn’t just healthier. It can help a family maintain normalcy through crises.
Prepare Without Fear
With all the challenges we face as Americans today, it can be emotionally draining. Citizens are scared and there’s nothing irrational about their concerns. Being prepared and making lifestyle changes to secure necessities can go a long way toward overcoming the fears that plague us. We should hope and pray for the best but prepare for the worst. And if the worst does come, then knowing we did what we could to be ready for it will help us face those challenges with confidence.
See all the latest videos and articles patriots need to watch and read at Discern.tv.
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