“Hopefully No More”: How Trump Appointments Could Sway the Balance of Power in the House

(DCNF)—President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet picks could temporarily jeopardize the GOP’s slim majority in the House of Representatives.

The GOP has held on to control of the House, securing the 218 seats needed for a majority with five races still yet to be called, according to The Associated Press. However, Trump has already selected three Republican House representatives to serve in his presidential cabinet, resulting in special elections that could reduce the GOP’s already razor thin majority in the chamber.

“There will not be a minute to waste, you can see his resolve already in how quickly he’s making really smart picks,” House Majority Leader Steve Scalise said Tuesday following Trump’s nominations of Republican New York Rep. Elise Stefanik for Ambassador to the United Nations and Republican Florida Rep. Mike Waltz for National Security Adviser. “I know he’s already pulled a few, really talented people out of the House, hopefully no more for a little while until special elections can come.”

Rep. @SteveScalise on President-elect Trump: "I know he's already pulled a few really talented people out of the House, hopefully no more for a little while…" pic.twitter.com/gTnOWgMxor

— CSPAN (@cspan) November 12, 2024

The day after Scalise made the comment, Trump nominated former Republican Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz for U.S. Attorney General, with Gaetz stepping down from congress shortly thereafter.

The process of filling vacancies in Florida can take months, as state law does not stipulate a specific amount of time within which the governor must call a special election, according to the Tallahassee Democrat. The replacement of former Democratic Florida Rep. Alcee Hastings following his death in 2021, for example, took roughly nine months.

If the three GOP vacancies remain unfilled when the 119th Congress begins on Jan. 3 and the Democratic party wins the five remaining uncalled races — four of which are currently within 1.5 percentage points — House Republicans could start the session with a 215-217 seat minority.

Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is not expected to slow walk filling Waltz and Gaetz’ seats, writing on X that he had “instructed Secretary of State Cord Byrd to formulate and announce a schedule for the upcoming special elections immediately.”

Florida’s special election process takes at least six weeks from when the governor begins the process, according to the Tallahassee Democrat, meaning Gaetz’ seat could be filled early on in the new congress. If Waltz leaves around Inauguration Day, his seat would not be filled until at least March.

Unlike Florida, New York law requires Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul call a special election within ten days of when Stefanik leaves the House, with the election to be held between 70 and 80 days after the call is made. As a result, if Stefanik leaves on Jan. 20 the special election would be held in April.

Gaetz resigned and indicated he would not be sworn in to the new Congress. It is unclear when Waltz and Stefanik will put in their notice.

While the vacancies could temporarily weigh on the GOP House majority, the seats are considered to be in safe districts. Gaetz, Waltz and Stefanik all won re-election by more than 20 percentage points in November, according to the AP.

Regarding the special election to replace Stefanik, New York State Republican Party spokesman David Laska told the Daily Caller News Foundation, “this is a safe Republican seat. We expect to retain it comfortably, irrespective of how much resources the DCCC chooses to waste on the race.”

Laska went on to address the GOP majority broadly, telling the DCNF: “The Republican House majority will remain intact, delivering President Trump a trifecta to implement the overwhelming mandate he and Republicans received from the American people last week.”

Republican Florida Rep. Carlos Gimenez echoed a similarly confident sentiment regarding the Florida special elections.

“Florida is now a Safe Republican state blessed with a bounty of GOP talent,” Gimenez told the DCNF. “The Members of Congress selected to serve in the Trump Administration, hail from rock-solid Republican districts where the eventual GOP Congressional nominee is surely to win the General Election. Speaker Johnson has been an exceptional leader & is actively working with all those involved to ensure our GOP majority is not impacted by these nominations. Our Members understand that we must vote in unison to pass President Trump’s agenda through Congress & protect our nation!”

The Florida GOP and Scalise’s office did not respond to requests for comment. Johnson’s office did not provide original comment.

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