Based Underground is now a conservative news aggregator AND curated newsletter.
(DCNF)—A handful of bettors are putting up millions of dollars on former President Donald Trump winning the election, skewing what some consider a metric for predicting the election massively to one side.
The users “Fredi9999,” “Theo4,” “PrincessCaro” and “Michie” make up $26 million in bets for Trump on popular betting site Polymarket, The Wall Street Journal first discovered Friday. Currently, Polymarket predicts that Trump has a 60% chance of winning the 2024 election, compared to only a 39.8% chance of Vice President Kamala Harris winning, a massive difference from the comparatively even odds predicted around October.
Some people, such as billionaire and Trump supporter Elon Musk, see the betting markets as a reflection of the reality of the election more than the polls. Experts are still divided on whether staking real money makes betting markets more accurate than polling, according to Fortune Friday.
“Unlike polls, prediction markets can be influenced by the interests of a small number of large players, as appears to be happening [on Polymarket],” Ryan Waite, vice president of public affairs at the public affairs consultancy Think Big, told Fortune. “The limitation here is that prediction markets often attract a specific kind of participant: people interested in betting who might not reflect the broader population and they can be influenced by deep pockets, overconfident individuals or herd mentality.”
On Polymarket, people can buy “shares” on what they think is the most likely outcome of the election, with rise and fall depending on demand, according to Fortune. Nicholas Creel, an associate professor of business law at Georgia College & State University told Fortune that Polymarket attracts a certain type of person and leaves out the general population.
“In Polymarket in particular, you don’t have a particularly large or diverse crowd of people,” Creel said. “A large driver of this is that the exchange requires users to bet with cryptocurrency, which the vast majority of the population has little to no familiarity with. Cryptocurrency tends to be something mostly loved by those on the far right, particularly your libertarian types.”
Some experts even think that the sway in odds on the betting platform is part of a broader operation to boost Trump’s favorability.
“I believe there has been a coordinated effort to change the perception of this race,” Tom Bonier, senior adviser at research firm TargetSmart, told Fortune. “A central argument has emerged in the closing weeks of this campaign: strength versus weakness. Donald Trump’s persona, and therefore his support from voters, relies on being seen as strong. But if the public perception is that he will lose, that all falls apart.”
Polymarket did not immediately respond to the Daily Caller News Foundation’s request for comment.
Featured Image: Screen Capture/CSPAN
- Preserve your retirement with physical precious metals. Receive your free gold guide from Genesis Precious Metals to learn how.
All content created by the Daily Caller News Foundation, an independent and nonpartisan newswire service, is available without charge to any legitimate news publisher that can provide a large audience. All republished articles must include our logo, our reporter’s byline and their DCNF affiliation. For any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact [email protected].
Afghan Who Plotted Election Day Terrorism Was a CIA Contractor
by Headline USA
It looks like the FBI may have entrapped a former CIA contractor in a plot to commit a terrorist attack on Election Day. The Justice Department announced this week the arrest of Nasir Ahmad Tawhedi, a 27-year-old Afghan man, alleging that he was planning an Election…
Last day for the special on long-term storage beef. Save 35% with promo code “JDR” at Prepper All-Naturals.
Genetically Modified Crops: A Growing Threat to Health and the Environment
by Olivia Cook
(Natural News)—Bioengineered foods and genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are commonly confused with each other, but they have different meanings. “Bioengineered” describes food and products that are enhanced with scientific techniques to add particular traits. In contrast, “GMOs” involve changing the genetic makeup of animals, plants or microbes in ways that…
United Nations Expands into “UN 2.0” to Turbocharge Sustainable Development Goals
by Liberty Sentinel
The United Nations (UN) has not gone rogue, argues journalist Alex Newman on American Family Radio’s show, At the Core , but they have always existed to achieve one goal: one-world government. This goal is not only un-American, but it is unbiblical. Newman and AFR host Walker Wildmon also dive…
Congressman Matt Gaetz Says Epstein Was Killed as Part of a ‘Foreign Operation’
by Modernity
Republican Congressman Matt Gaetz says sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein was killed as part of a ‘foreign operation’, but refused to divulge which government was responsible for his death. Gaetz made the comments during an appearance on Benny Johnson’s show. In August 2019, Epstein was found unresponsive in his jail cell…
DOJ Takes Aim at Breaking Up Google
by Infowars
On Tuesday, the United States announced potential plans to request a court mandate directing Alphabet Inc to divest significant segments of its operations, including its Chrome browser and Android operating system. This move aims to dismantle what is described as an illegal monopoly held by Google in the online search…
Is Gavin Newsom Hoping that Kamala Harris Loses the Election?
by American Greatness
Two minutes of airtime during the Democrat National Convention in Chicago gave California Governor Gavin Newsom his latest opportunity to build his national stature. As part of the announcement of Kamala Harris’s clinching of the Democrat presidential nomination during a symbolic roll call of state delegates, Newsom portrayed Harris as…
Is It Time for a Nationwide Ban on Fluoridated Water?
by Natural News
Do community leaders reserve the right to mass medicate every person in their community using the water supply as a vector? What if that medicine was eventually exposed as a POISON decades later? What if that POISON was damaging the brains of children and stunting the cognitive development of the…
GOP Rep. Luna: We Need to End FEMA Migrant Spending and Boost Disaster Relief Funding
by Breitbart
On Wednesday’s broadcast of the Fox News Channel’s “Ingraham Angle,” Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) stated that FEMA’s funding for migrants should be zeroed out at once and that while there is FEMA money for hurricane victims, we should also boost emergency relief funding “that will go directly to Americans…
Earth’s Continental Crust in America and China Is Breaking Apart
by End Times Headlines
Researchers, who have been studying the dramatic changes in the continental configurations of Earth over the past billions of years, have made a stunning observation: that the oldest continental crusts are disintegrating. According to experts, the Earth’s crust went through expansion and contraction and has transformed not only its positions…
“Line All Those Guys Up and Shoot Them”: Professor Says Men Who Don’t Support Female Candidates Should Be Massacred
by Daily Caller
(Jaryn Crouson, DCNF)—A professor at the University of Kansas (UK) told a class that men who would not vote for a female president should be lined up and shot, according to a video posted on X Wednesday. The university confirmed the professor is employed at UK and made the comment…