Based Underground is now a conservative news aggregator AND curated newsletter.
The Federal Reserve is on the brink of reducing interest rates for the first time since 2020, marking a pivotal moment in U.S. financial policy. This decision arrives at a time of significant economic flux, with implications that ripple across the stock and bond markets. In this analysis, we will dissect the potential financial repercussions of this monetary policy shift, providing a nuanced view of its impact on various economic sectors.
Analysis
The Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision has generated a split forecast among traders, with probabilities evenly divided between a quarter-percentage-point cut and a more substantial half-point reduction. This uncertainty has stirred the financial markets, which had enjoyed a period of relative stability over the past year. The possibility of rate cuts, prompted by a cooling job market, has reignited concerns about whether the Fed has delayed its response to shifting economic conditions.
Stock and bond markets are currently presenting divergent interpretations of the future. While bond yields have plummeted, reflecting a market bracing for a series of rate cuts indicative of recessionary fears, the stock market has demonstrated resilience. The S&P 500, for instance, has recovered from recent sell-offs, maintaining a year-to-date increase of 18%. This suggests a prevailing investor optimism that the Federal Reserve might successfully forestall a recession.
Examples
Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer for fixed income, captures the market’s volatile sentiment:
“Markets have been on edge for the last month or two,” said Rick Rieder. “You’ve seen bonds move rapidly from a sanguine view to recession.”
The bond market’s aggressive pricing in of potential rate cuts, as noted by Alicia Levine from BNY Wealth, underscores the market’s reactionary nature:
“The bond market seems to be pricing in many more rate cuts than would be warranted if we see a soft landing with 2% GDP growth,” said Alicia Levine. “I think it tends to overexert itself on the number of cuts and then takes it back as data comes in that suggests otherwise.”
David Kelly of J.P. Morgan Asset Management discusses the dichotomy of potential outcomes:
“I see two possible outcomes here: We have a soft landing and the Fed can slowly cut interest rates like they intend. Or, there’s maybe a 30% chance it all goes horribly wrong, we slide into a recession and the Fed panics and cuts very aggressively,” Kelly said. “I think what you’re seeing in the futures market is a sort of weighted average of those two views.”
Conclusion
As we approach this critical Fed meeting, the financial community remains on high alert, parsing every piece of economic data and Fed communication for clues to the future path of monetary policy. The interplay between the bond and stock markets highlights the complexity of predicting economic trends. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for financial professionals, business leaders, and engaged citizens alike, as these decisions have far-reaching implications for the economic landscape and investment strategies.
Diddy Charges and Arrest Beg the Question: What Other Elite Hollywood Celebs Knew About ‘Freak Offs?’
by Outkick
Puff Daddy is finally facing the mother of all karma for his alleged sick and twisted behavior spanning a decade or more. At yesterday’s press conference, reporters asked the attorney why it took so long to get these charges and that’s a great question. Fs Sot 3 (5) Here’s another…
Is This Kamala’s Biggest Lie About Her Family Yet?
by Natural News
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has falsely claimed that her grandfather was a freedom fighter in the Indian independence movement. The Democratic presidential nominee shared on Sept. 8 a picture of herself in India with her maternal grandfather P.V. Gopalan. She described him as a “retired civil servant who had…
What Did John Brennan Know?
by Frontpage Mag
In the wake of the second attempt on his life, Donald Trump flagged the “highly inflammatory language” Democrats have deployed against him, such as the charges of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris that the former president is a threat to democracy and so forth. When it comes to inflammatory language…
Are the White House and Pentagon Controlled by a Shadowy Few?
by Zero Hedge
As we approach the 2024 election, many Americans are disillusioned by the notion that their votes truly matter. Why? Because there’s a growing belief that a hidden force – often referred to as the Deep or Administrative State – wields disproportionate power behind the scenes. Despite our democratic process, can…
Special:
Stock up on long-term storage steak with 25-year shelf-life and take advantage of 35% off with promo code “freedom35” – this week only. Visit Prepper All-Naturals and secure your family’s future with freeze dried Ribeye, NY Strip, Tenderloin, and more.
Do We Have Another Instance Where the Secret Service Can’t Get Its Story Right?
by Townhall
Former President Donald Trump was nearly assassinated on September 15 while golfing in West Palm Beach. The former president’s trip to Trump International Golf Club was not planned, but would-be assassin Ryan Wesley Routh was waiting on the course, hiding in a shrubbery for 12 hours with a rifle and…
City Demands Pastor Take Down ‘Jesus’ Sign in Front of Church, Gets Epic Response From Him During Sermon
by Western Journal
Freedom-loving Americans cannot help but bemoan the mounting authoritarianism of both federal and state officials. As we discovered during the COVID era, however, sometimes Satan infects even our neighbors with the spirit of petty tyranny. In a clip posted Tuesday to the social media platform X, Pastor Mark Driscoll of…
Leftists Deserve the J6 Treatment
by J.B. Shurk
Remember: illegally appointed special counsel Jack Smith is prosecuting President Trump in D.C. for exercising his constitutional right to free speech after the 2020 election. Smith’s case essentially claims that Trump was not entitled to question the legitimacy of the mail-in ballot–tainted election and that his refusal to concede to Joe Biden…
Professor Teaches Students About Evil by Having Them Read Writings of Hitler’s Chief Propagandist
by Red State
A professor at the University of Austin ingeniously teaches students about “good and evil” by having them read the writings of some of the 20th century’s most evil people, including Adolf Hitler’s chief propagandist, Joseph Goebbels. Spoiler: I think it’s absolutely brilliant. Professor Marietta, who says Goebbels used “emotional appeal”…
Bombshell Lab Findings: Covid Jab Spike Proteins Likely Accelerate Cancer, Neurological Disorders, Dementia, Crohn’s, Lyme and More
by S.D. Wells, Natural News
(Natural News)—Back in February, U.S. Republican Senator Ron Johnson from Wisconsin held a roundtable discussion titled ‘Federal Health Agencies and the COVID Cartel: What Are They Hiding?’. In attendance at that forum was an internal medicine specialist and medical doctor named Sabine Hazan, who conducts and supervises clinical trials for cutting-edge…
Fan in MAGA Hat Denied Entry at Arizona Cardinals’ Home Stadium Unless She Threw It Away, Prompting Apology From Team
by The Blaze
The Arizona Cardinals organization has issued an apology after a fan was initially denied entry to the team’s home opener because she was wearing a Make America Great Again hat in support of the presidential candidacy of former President Donald Trump. On Sunday, thousands of football fans flocked to State…
New Report: State Department Funded Fact-Checkers to Censor ‘Lawful Speech’
by Michael Nevradakis Ph.D., The Defender
(The Defender)—The U.S. Department of State-funded domestic and international fact-checking entities that censored American independent media outlets and social media users who questioned the Biden administration’s COVID-19 and other policies, according to a congressional report. The report by the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Small Business stated: “The Federal…
Springfield City Manager Admitted in March He’d ‘Heard’ About Haitian Migrants Eating ‘Domesticated Animals’
by The Post Millennial
A video from the Springfield City Commission meeting in March has resurfaced on Twitter, showing the Springfield, Ohio, City Manager Bryan Heck admitting that he had heard stories about Haitian immigrants to the town consuming “domesticated animals.” A resident of Springfield spoke to at the meeting and the City Manager,…
Did the Government Shield Diddy Like Epstein?
by Daily Wire
Some of the most revealing moments from the sordid saga of Jeffrey Epstein came when government officials were asked direct questions, then ducked them without any real explanation. Case in point: Five years ago, the Labor Secretary at the time, Alex Acosta, was speaking to reporters about his handling of…
Saudi Arabia Won’t Recognize Israel Without Palestinian State, Says Crown Prince
by End Times Headlines
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Wednesday said the kingdom would not recognize Israel without a Palestinian state and strongly condemned the “crimes of the Israeli occupation” against the Palestinian people. “The kingdom will not stop its tireless work towards the establishment of an independent Palestinian state with East…
Retired Border Patrol Chief Accuses Joe Biden, Kamala Harris of Attempting to Hide Mass Release of Migrants Into U.S.
by Breitbart
Retired Border Patrol Chief Aaron Heitke, who left his position at the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in early 2023, says President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris’s administration has worked to hide the mass release of migrants into American communities. During a House Homeland Security Committee hearing on…
Less Than 50 Days Until Life in America Changes Forever, and Our Nation Is Primed for Massive Civil Unrest
by Michael Snyder
(The Economic Collapse Blog)—Years of extremely inflammatory rhetoric from the mainstream media and from many of our leaders have brought us to the brink of a societal nightmare. The numbers that I am about to share with you are horrifying, but it is so important for us to understand what…