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The Home Buyers
(Mises)—As reported by ZeroHedge recently, the NAR U.S. Pending Home Sales Index dropped 2.1 percent MoM in May, down 6.6 percent YoY.
To put these numbers into perspective, the current index is at 70.8, or 70.8 percent of the contract activity in the base year 2001. This is lower than any point during the 2008 financial crisis; even lower than 2020, when lockdowns brought markets to a screeching halt. This is the lowest level of contract activity in my lifetime.
The position of new home buyers in 2024 is unprecedented. Not only are prices at record highs, but the new generation of prospective home buyers can’t remember a time without cheap mortgages. During the steep decline in pending sales between 2005 and 2007, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage only increased by about one percent. Since January of 2021, the average 30-year fixed rate has increased by 4.21 percent.
The Retail Investors
News is trickling out into the press that the investors are offloading non-traded Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS) , and the demand for withdrawals is causing a significant cash shortage for major players link Blackstone and Starwood.
Last January, InvestmentNews ran a piece on the REIT situation, which included an interview from an anonymous executive.
“What’s going to happen over the next couple of years when commercial mortgages come due, and who will pick up the pieces?” asked a senior industry executive, who asked not to be identified. “Where will they get their refinancing, and where will the REITs and real estate investors go to get their leverage?
“Right now, the firms that hold a bunch of those loans are the regional banks,” the executive said. “And those smaller banks can’t do it, especially after what happened last year. They won’t be able to refinance.”
I discussed the endemic problems in regional banks in a recent article, but this unnamed executive raises another good point: even if the managers can pay disbursements, how are they going to refinance? Any new real estate investments are going to be negatively leveraged for the foreseeable future.
What’s Next for Real Estate?
We’ve covered home buyers and retail investors, but what about big institutional investors? I suspect private equity real estate (PERE) funds are in a similar position to nontraded REITS. For those not in the know, REITS are trusts while PERE funds are usually limited partnerships with owner-managers (General Partners or GPs for short) and non-managing limited liability owners (Limited Partners or LPs for short). At the end of the fund’s life, the owner-managers are supposed to sell off the assets and pay out the proceeds to the LPs.
Managers have some leeway over ending funds, depending on how the terms were negotiated in the partnership agreement. Some agreements funds allow managers, acting in good faith, to hold on to properties a bit longer than the fund’s intended lifespan to increase returns.
There was plenty of time for managers to get ambitious during Covid, when rates were low, real estate values were soaring, and investors were fire hosing money into PERE funds. It was, no doubt, very tempting to hold properties a bit longer than expected and keep collecting management fees. But what about now when rates are high and the market’s gears are full of sand? Will there be buyers willing to eagerly snatch up these properties at the current cost of borrowing?
Since these are private funds, we don’t get access to the limited partner advisory committee meetings, but any whiff in the press of legal disputes over fund payouts and clawback provisions will be a sure indication that something is amiss.
‘Merely Coincidental’: Secular Scientist Work Overtime to Explain Away the Miracles of Christ
by Harbingers Daily
Was the miracle of Jesus feeding the 5,000 with just five loaves and two fish a little less than miraculous? Well, that’s what a group of scientists are claiming in a recent paper published in a scientific journal. Instead of a supernatural provision by the Lord, they claim the feeding…
Google Hosts Party for Democratic Operatives Plotting To ‘Resist the Republican Agenda’
by Free Beacon
The resistance’s bar tab is on Google. Priorities USA, a top Democratic super PAC with an affiliated dark money group, is convening a summit of left-wing digital activists on Wednesday afternoon to deliver a post-mortem on Vice President Kamala Harris’s election loss and strategize how to “resist the Republican agenda,”…
“The Correction Before the Surge”: Why Gold and Silver’s Future Is Brighter Than Ever
by Sponsored Post
It was long overdue by most estimates. Precious metals prices have been steadily rising for far longer than even the …
Ukraine Denies Reports From Think Tank That It Is Months Away From Developing a Nuclear Weapon
by Natural News
Ukraine has denied reports suggesting it could develop a nuclear weapon soon, following claims by a Ukrainian military think tank. The report, published by the Ukrainian think tank and nongovernmental organization the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, claimed that Kyiv could use spent nuclear fuel from its remaining…
Alex Jones Reveals Elon Musk Saved Infowars From Being Sold to The Onion
by End Times Headlines
Alex Jones has declared ‘the cavalry is here’ as attorneys for Elon Musk’s X jumped in to help put a temporary pause on the sale of his controversial Infowars to The Onion. The satirical news publication said the bid was sanctioned by the families of Sandy Hook Elementary victims who…
FBI Whistleblower Says FBI Intentionally Blocking Security Clearances for Trump Officials
by The Conservative Treehouse
It should not come as a surprise to see the same methods deployed against President Trump in 2024 that were used by the FBI in 2016. The difference is now that President Trump understands the full power of his office in the security clearance process and that he doesn’t need…
Pastor Greg Locke Burns Voodoo Doll He Claims Was Found on His Property
by End Times Headlines
Even amid ongoing warfare, we are called to stand firm on the Word of God. Pastor Greg Locke knows well the spiritual and physical attacks directed at him; he was recently targeted by a gunman. Now, he faces another spiritual assault, this time from someone attempting to place a curse…
Trump’s Incoming FCC Chief Already Putting Target on Big Tech ‘Censorship Cartel’
by WND
Social media companies have become a “cartel” for suppressing information with which they disagree, and that agenda now is going to be getting the attention of Brendan Carr, President-elect Donald Trump’s pick to be the chairman of the Federal Communications Commission. It was social media companies who played a role…
Sabotage: Two Undersea Internet Cables Connecting Four NATO Nations Were Severed
by Publius
Many in the international community are claiming sabotage as the only viable explanation for two fiber optic internet cables in the Baltic Sea being severed less than 24-hours apart. Fingers are being pointed at Russia as one of the the cables connected NATO nations Germany and Finland. The latter was…
Pennsylvania Supreme Court Orders Democrats to Immediately End Counting of Illegal Ballots
by Infowars
The Pennsylvania Supreme Court on Monday ordered Democrats in several counties to immediately halt their unlawful counting of illegal ballots in the Senate race recount. The Pennsylvania Supreme Court had ruled before the election that mail-in ballots lacking formally required signatures or dates should not be included in official results….
22-Year-Old Woman With Depression Was Almost Euthanized, She Changed Her Mind Right Before She Was Killed
by Life News
Why do you oppose euthanasia, Wesley? If people want to die, we should help them die. No. And here’s an individual example explaining just one reason why. A deeply depressed woman was about to be lethally injected in the Netherlands — but changed her mind just in the nick of…
“Massive Breach”: T-Mobile Network Hacked by Chinese State Sponsored Intelligence
by Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge
(Zero Hedge)—Where’s John Legere in a pink t-shirt when you need him? Among the multiple stories over the last few weeks about Chinese intelligence and hackers either attempting to, or outright gaining access, to U.S. cell phone networks (with reports stating President Trump and his team were targeted), comes news…
Trump’s Idea to Shut Down Department of Education Gets High Five From Top Christian Evangelist
by WND
A priority for the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump is to tackle the Deep State, the bureaucracy in Washington that is a self-perpetuating industry, to find what American taxpayers don’t need or want. And get rid of it. One of the targets he’s already identified is the Department of…
Experts Sound Alarm Over ‘Shocking’ Spike in Strokes Among ‘Healthy’ Young People
by Slay News
Health experts have issued a chilling warning to the public over a “shocking” spike in strokes among “healthy” young people. The “alarming” surge was identified in official UK government data. The data shows that recorded cases of deadly strokes skyrocketed in 2023 and continued soaring this year. In 2023/24, the…
