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The Home Buyers
(Mises)—As reported by ZeroHedge recently, the NAR U.S. Pending Home Sales Index dropped 2.1 percent MoM in May, down 6.6 percent YoY.
To put these numbers into perspective, the current index is at 70.8, or 70.8 percent of the contract activity in the base year 2001. This is lower than any point during the 2008 financial crisis; even lower than 2020, when lockdowns brought markets to a screeching halt. This is the lowest level of contract activity in my lifetime.
The position of new home buyers in 2024 is unprecedented. Not only are prices at record highs, but the new generation of prospective home buyers can’t remember a time without cheap mortgages. During the steep decline in pending sales between 2005 and 2007, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage only increased by about one percent. Since January of 2021, the average 30-year fixed rate has increased by 4.21 percent.
The Retail Investors
News is trickling out into the press that the investors are offloading non-traded Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITS) , and the demand for withdrawals is causing a significant cash shortage for major players link Blackstone and Starwood.
Last January, InvestmentNews ran a piece on the REIT situation, which included an interview from an anonymous executive.
“What’s going to happen over the next couple of years when commercial mortgages come due, and who will pick up the pieces?” asked a senior industry executive, who asked not to be identified. “Where will they get their refinancing, and where will the REITs and real estate investors go to get their leverage?
“Right now, the firms that hold a bunch of those loans are the regional banks,” the executive said. “And those smaller banks can’t do it, especially after what happened last year. They won’t be able to refinance.”
I discussed the endemic problems in regional banks in a recent article, but this unnamed executive raises another good point: even if the managers can pay disbursements, how are they going to refinance? Any new real estate investments are going to be negatively leveraged for the foreseeable future.
What’s Next for Real Estate?
We’ve covered home buyers and retail investors, but what about big institutional investors? I suspect private equity real estate (PERE) funds are in a similar position to nontraded REITS. For those not in the know, REITS are trusts while PERE funds are usually limited partnerships with owner-managers (General Partners or GPs for short) and non-managing limited liability owners (Limited Partners or LPs for short). At the end of the fund’s life, the owner-managers are supposed to sell off the assets and pay out the proceeds to the LPs.
Managers have some leeway over ending funds, depending on how the terms were negotiated in the partnership agreement. Some agreements funds allow managers, acting in good faith, to hold on to properties a bit longer than the fund’s intended lifespan to increase returns.
There was plenty of time for managers to get ambitious during Covid, when rates were low, real estate values were soaring, and investors were fire hosing money into PERE funds. It was, no doubt, very tempting to hold properties a bit longer than expected and keep collecting management fees. But what about now when rates are high and the market’s gears are full of sand? Will there be buyers willing to eagerly snatch up these properties at the current cost of borrowing?
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Since these are private funds, we don’t get access to the limited partner advisory committee meetings, but any whiff in the press of legal disputes over fund payouts and clawback provisions will be a sure indication that something is amiss.
Five Reasons to Believe Trump’s Would-Be Assassins Are Deep State Assets
by JD Rucker
Tinfoil hat time. By no means am I going to convince anyone with this short article that Ryan Wesley Routh (or Thomas Michael Crooks, for that matter) is an asset for the Deep State. That is not the intention because to “prove” it would be as impossible as “proving” anything…
Hurricane Forecasts Poised to Be Spectacularly Overstated, Raising Doubt About Climate Science
by Just The News
Penn State celebrity climate scientist Michael Mann announced in April that his research group’s 2024 North Atlantic season forecast was expecting an “unprecedented” 33 named storms, with a range between 27 and 39. That prediction has turned out to be a dud. With Hurricane Francine hitting the coasts Thursday, the…
Another Attack on President Trump Prompted Prepper Surge
by Sponsored Post
The 2nd attempted assassination of Donald Trump has prompted renewed concerns over the nation’s future. Website traffic on Sunday was higher than it’s been in our history. One does not have to be a Republican to realize that chaos may be in store for us soon. At Prepper All-Naturals, we’re…
DJT’s Attempted Assassin Made 19 Donations to Democrats
by Independent Sentinel
The attempted assassin of Donald J. Trump is Ryan Wesley Routh, who has made 19 donations to Democrats. The donations were to Elizabeth Warren, fake Hispanic Beto O’Rourke, Andrew Yang, Tom Steyer, and Tulsi Gabbard. Allegedly, Routh also claimed to have fought in Ukraine in 2022 and supported the war….
Dem Rep. Crockett: MAGA Is a Domestic Threat, Trump Is Stoking Them
by Breitbart
Representative Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) said Sunday on MSNBC’s “Inside” that MAGA is a domestic threat that former President Donald Trump is stoking them. Crockett said, “Springfield is going through hell, but they are going through hell because the guy who says he wants to be the commander-in-chief is actually bringing…
Sunlight and Clouds, Not CO2, Drive Earth’s Climate, New Study Finds
by The Epoch Times
This year’s summer months were characterized by cold outdoor pools that eagerly welcomed guests, concrete that scorched the soles of bare feet, and popsicles that melted in the relentless, blazing heat. In August, the European Commission’s Copernicus report found that the global average temperature had reached record highs in the…
The Man That Just Tried to Assassinate Donald Trump Has Very Alarming Links to Ukraine
by Michael Snyder
(End of the American Dream)—We are starting to learn more about Ryan Routh’s background, and what we have learned may help to explain why he attempted to shoot Donald Trump. It turns out that Routh is a rabid pro-Ukraine activist. In 2022, he actually traveled to Ukraine to fight in the…
Bill Gates Forecasts Another Global Pandemic ‘Likely’ Within Next 25 Years in Ominous Health Warning
by End Times Headlines
War or another global pandemic, Microsoft CEO Bill Gates is cautioning that, if the world manages to avoid the former, the latter is a very real possibility within the next 25 years. “A lot of unrest” in today’s age could spark a major war, he told CNBC’s “Make It.” “If…
US Foreign Policy Should Defy China, Recognize Taiwan as a Country
by The Gateway Pundit
The U.S., as the world’s most powerful country, should have an independent foreign policy. Currently, the U.S. abides by the One-China policy to appease Beijing. The U.S. should no longer allow Beijing to dictate its foreign policy and should recognize the independence of Taiwan, a high-functioning, multi-party democracy whose citizens…
Florida Will Conduct Investigation Into Trump Assassination Attempt: DeSantis
by Jack Phillips
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Sunday announced the state will launch its own investigation into the apparent assassination attempt targeting former President Donald Trump earlier in the day. The FBI has said in a statement it is investigating the matter as an assassination attempt, while law enforcement officials said on…
‘Stop This Reckless Escalation’: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Tells Biden Not to Authorize Long-Range Missile Attacks on Russian Territory
by The Gateway Pundit
The world is handing on the edge of a major escalation with unpredictable consequences, as Ukraine relentlessly pushes for the US to make decisions that can have unpredictable consequences. All around the world, peace-loving people who can see the danger ahead are cautioning the western NATO powers – notably the…
