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Early vote data in Nevada suggests the state is slipping away from Democrats and could likely be won by President Donald J. Trump on November 5. The state’s top elections and political analyst Jon Ralston—himself a partisan Democrat—is warning that in prior presidential years, the question has always been whether Republicans can overcome the Democratic Party’s early vote firewall. However, he notes that this year, the question has been reversed.
“This year is different in many ways, but most obviously in that for the first time in The Reid Machine Era (2008 and forward), the Republicans are the ones banking votes in a presidential year, establishing a firewall to try to fend off a Democratic comeback and put themselves in the best position since [George W. Bush] won the state in 2004,” Ralston writes, adding: “So the analysis is the opposite of what it usually is: Can the Dems overcome the deficit and what would that look like in the models?”
The Nevada elections guru contends that while Democrats did see some positive news regarding vote totals in Clark County earlier this week, and they do typically surge votes in the final two days of early voting, it may be too little, too late.
“My gut and the data/history tell me it could be close,” Ralston says, adding: “But I tend to agree with GOP operative Jeremy Hughes, who posits that if the final GOP ballot lead gets much over 25,000, big trouble for Dems in trying to turn around this battleship.”
According to Nevada state election data, the Republican Party currently holds an eight percent statewide turnout edge, with a nearly ten percent edge in crucial Clark Couty. The Democrat firewall in the county is just at 8,600 in Clark. […]
— Read More: thenationalpulse.com
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