Based Underground is now a conservative news aggregator AND curated newsletter.
The Federal Reserve is on the brink of reducing interest rates for the first time since 2020, marking a pivotal moment in U.S. financial policy. This decision arrives at a time of significant economic flux, with implications that ripple across the stock and bond markets. In this analysis, we will dissect the potential financial repercussions of this monetary policy shift, providing a nuanced view of its impact on various economic sectors.
Analysis
The Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision has generated a split forecast among traders, with probabilities evenly divided between a quarter-percentage-point cut and a more substantial half-point reduction. This uncertainty has stirred the financial markets, which had enjoyed a period of relative stability over the past year. The possibility of rate cuts, prompted by a cooling job market, has reignited concerns about whether the Fed has delayed its response to shifting economic conditions.
Stock and bond markets are currently presenting divergent interpretations of the future. While bond yields have plummeted, reflecting a market bracing for a series of rate cuts indicative of recessionary fears, the stock market has demonstrated resilience. The S&P 500, for instance, has recovered from recent sell-offs, maintaining a year-to-date increase of 18%. This suggests a prevailing investor optimism that the Federal Reserve might successfully forestall a recession.
Examples
Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer for fixed income, captures the market’s volatile sentiment:
“Markets have been on edge for the last month or two,” said Rick Rieder. “You’ve seen bonds move rapidly from a sanguine view to recession.”
The bond market’s aggressive pricing in of potential rate cuts, as noted by Alicia Levine from BNY Wealth, underscores the market’s reactionary nature:
“The bond market seems to be pricing in many more rate cuts than would be warranted if we see a soft landing with 2% GDP growth,” said Alicia Levine. “I think it tends to overexert itself on the number of cuts and then takes it back as data comes in that suggests otherwise.”
David Kelly of J.P. Morgan Asset Management discusses the dichotomy of potential outcomes:
“I see two possible outcomes here: We have a soft landing and the Fed can slowly cut interest rates like they intend. Or, there’s maybe a 30% chance it all goes horribly wrong, we slide into a recession and the Fed panics and cuts very aggressively,” Kelly said. “I think what you’re seeing in the futures market is a sort of weighted average of those two views.”
Conclusion
As we approach this critical Fed meeting, the financial community remains on high alert, parsing every piece of economic data and Fed communication for clues to the future path of monetary policy. The interplay between the bond and stock markets highlights the complexity of predicting economic trends. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for financial professionals, business leaders, and engaged citizens alike, as these decisions have far-reaching implications for the economic landscape and investment strategies.
Mysterious “Skyquakes” Are Causing Strange “Booms” in the Sky, and Scientists Have No Explanation
by Michael Snyder
(End of the American Dream)—What is causing the extremely loud “booms” that people are hearing in the sky all over the world? We are being told that “skyquakes” are responsible, but scientists have no idea why these “skyquakes” are occurring. In some cases, the “skyquakes” cause such powerful shaking that…
The Biggest Sale on Long-Term Storage Beef EVER
by Sponsored Post
Let’s cut to the chase. Prepper All-Naturals is offering an unprecedented 40% off for it’s “Beef Steak” survival bags with promo code “steak40”. With a 25-year shelf life and a single ingredient (beef, of course), our most popular product is available for a very limited time with the biggest discount…
Seattle Is Ordered to Stop Blocking Illegal Alien Deportations in the Most Hilarious Court Decision Ever
by PJ Media
A federal court has just pooped in the oatmeal of the West Coast, Messed Coast™governors and local election officials suffering from acute cases of Trump Derangement Syndrome who think they can stop illegal alien deportations. And after this hilarious and thorough legal takedown from the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals,…
Illegal Alien Terror Suspect Found Dead in Cook County Jail Cell
by Slay News
An Islamic illegal alien has been found dead in his jail cell after being arrested on terrorism charges. According to CWBChicago, 22-year-old Sidi Mohamed Abdallahi was found dead at the Cook County jail in Illinois on Saturday. Abdallahi was arrested on felony terrorism and hate crime charges in October. He…
Trump’s Wild Bunch Is Ready for Action
by Frank Miele
If for no other reason than that it will elicit fear in the hearts of autocracy-phobics, I propose that Donald Trump’s second-term Cabinet be known as “The Wild Bunch.” The name is best known as the title of Sam Peckinpah’s classic 1969 western featuring a colorful cast of aging outlaws…
FAA Issues Flight Restrictions Over Questionable Drone Activity Near Trump’s Bedminster Golf Course
by Just The News
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) on Tuesday said that it has issued two flight restrictions on the area surrounding President-elect Donald Trump’s Bedminster golf club in New Jersey, following questionable drone activity. The drone sightings were first reported on Nov. 18, but have continued into this week, according to Fox…
Ex-FBI Agent Convicted for Stealing From Jan 6 Defendant During Raid
by Trending Politics
A former Houston-based FBI agent has been convicted of stealing valuables and cash while conducting searches. In one instance, the agent stole cash and silver bars from a non-violent January 6 defendant’s home. Nicholas Anthony Williams, 36, was indicted on January 31 in the Southern District of Texas. Williams, who…
Democrats, Media Elite Urge Biden to Pardon Trump’s Alleged ‘Enemies List’
by Breitbart
President Joe Biden should issue preemptive pardons to his political allies and those deemed to be on President-elect Donald Trump’s alleged “enemies list,” Democrats and their media allies believe. Delivering a preemptive pardon indicates an admission of guilt, although Democrats claim a preemptive pardon would only be intended to block…
Fani Willis Forced to Release All Communications With Jack Smith, J6 Committee
by Trending Politics
The Fulton County Superior Court has ruled against District Attorney Fani Willis, ordering her to disclose communications with Special Counsel Jack Smith and the House January 6 Committee. The decision, announced on Tuesday, follows a lawsuit brought by Judicial Watch, a conservative watchdog group, which accused Willis of violating Georgia’s…
Lindsey Graham Is the Warmongering NeoCon Leading the Charge to Upend Pete Hegseth
by JD Rucker
Pete Hegseth represents a shift away from the wokeness that has infected the United States military. This is possibly the biggest reason President-Elect Donald Trump tapped him to be the next Secretary of Defense and the vast majority of Republicans on Capitol Hill can support this, at least for the…
‘Where Are Black Democrats?’: Charles Payne Tells Personal Story to Call Out ‘Huge Double Standard’ of Biden Family
by Nicole Silverio, DCNF
(DCNF)—Fox Business host Charles Payne called out the alleged “huge double standard” of President Joe Biden’s family Tuesday by revealing that his brother, who struggles with a crack addiction, is currently serving a jail sentence. Payne said his brother, who is getting out of jail on Friday, is likely one…
Zelensky Admits Ukraine Can’t Retake All Its Land: ‘We Must Seek Diplomatic Means’
by Breitbart
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky conceded in an interview on Tuesday that Ukraine does not have “enough forces” to restore sovereignty over Russian-occupied Crimea and “must seek diplomatic means” to end the Russian invasion and regain its land. The state-run Ukrinform outlet reported that Zelensky described Crimea – which Russia colonized…
Ultra-Processed Foods: How Bad Are They for Your Health?
by Olivia Cook
(Natural News)—Despite the serious health risks associated with eating junk food, they remain the most consumed food products in many countries, particularly developed ones. But a review published in The BMJ, which studied 9.8 million people, warns that eating a lot of ultra-processed foods can increase your risk for 32 diseases. Among these are heart…
“Already Pretty Far Down the Line”: The Container Store Could File for Bankruptcy as Soon as Next Year
by Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge
(Zero Hedge)—As the retail apocalypse that started with Amazon and e-commerce continues, the latest victim is The Container Store. The retail giant could file for bankruptcy as soon as next year, according to the New York Post, who said the retailer is blaming its recent descent on “a weak housing…
Mysterious ‘Car-Sized Drones’ Over New Jersey Prompt FBI Investigation
by Zero Hedge
Several weeks of mysterious drone swarms over the skies of one New Jersey county near the military research and manufacturing facility Picatinny Arsenal have sparked concerns among residents and prompted an FBI investigation. “It’s kind of unsettling,” Mike Walsh, a Morris County resident who has spotted the drones on numerous…
UNESCO’s New Mission: Train Influencers About Combatting Online “Misinformation”
by Reclaim the Net
The UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) is now incorporating teaching influencers how to “fact check” into its activities. UNESCO claims that influencers have become “primary sources of news and cultural information” around the world – which prompted it to carry out a survey into how these online personalities…
