Based Underground is now a conservative news aggregator AND curated newsletter.
(Daily Signal)—Demographer, historian, and author Neil Howe hasn’t just coined the term “Millennial,” he’s also predicted the future to an eerie degree—and he thinks America’s in for very rough seas ahead. He says a civil war in the U.S. is far more plausible than most people think, and he dismisses the reasons Americans often discount that possibility.
In 1997, he published a book with Bill Strauss, “The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy—What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny.” In that book, he suggested five catalysts for a major crisis—and four of the five have already come to pass.
“One of our events was a crisis over the debt, which would issue forth in a new tea party movement,” Howe tells “The Daily Signal Podcast.” He calls it “just completely random that we happened to use that phrase,” which the tea party movement adopted in 2010.
“The other one was a WMD [weapon of mass destruction] attack on New York City,” Howe says, noting the eerie parallel with Sept. 11, 2001. “The other one was the [COVID-19] pandemic, and the fourth one was Russia invading a former Soviet republic,” such as Ukraine.
The final potential catalyst? “A nullification crisis, where one or more of the states would actually nullify federal regulation, which would lead to a new secession movement,” Howe says.
According to his generational theory, America should expect a major crisis about every 80-100 years, and we’re due for another “rendezvous with destiny” such as the Great Depression and World War II. He calls these periods “fourth turnings,” and they force society to create a new order in the civic “outer world” about 40 or 50 years after “awakenings” drive people inward, seeking order in their spiritual “inner worlds.”
Why a Civil War Is Likely
Howe notes that “our politics have taken on this kind of Manichaean style, where the red zone and blue zone are so mutually exclusive in their sense of themselves, their agenda for the nation’s future, that it hardly even matters who’s leading the party.” (“Manichaean” refers to the tendency to view one side as perfectly good and the other side as perfectly evil, and it traces back to a world religion that arose with the prophet Mani in the 200s A.D., which taught that the physical world is evil and the spiritual world is good.)
He cites Carl Becker, who wrote an essay in 1941, “The Dilemma of Modern Democracy.”
“When most of what you’re talking about is the width of sidewalks and the diameter of sewer pipes, just coordination issues, democracy works really well,” Howe says. “But when you’re talking about issues that virtually define who you are, it doesn’t work. He said no one is going to accede to a vote count that goes 51% against you.”
“You are not going to give up everything you believe in just because you came up three votes short,” he explains.
Howe says U.S. polarization reached similar levels in the 1770s, the 1850s, and the 1930s.
When The Daily Signal noted that American polarization doesn’t neatly fall along lines on a map like in the U.S. Civil War, Howe says the presence of blue cities in red states actually makes conflict more likely.
“One misconception people have is that civil wars require geographically separated places,” he notes. “This is not true, and take a look at the Spanish Civil War. That was a brutal, horrible war, and there was very little geographical contiguity about it. … It was like honeycombed. The civil war in China was the same way.”
Even in the U.S. Civil War, there were “civil wars within states,” especially in “border states.”
“And actually, your point about blue zone cities within red zone states or vice versa is a classic reason why civil wars get touched off, and why they are never resolved amicably,” Howe says.
Problems for World in U.S. Civil War
“There are two ways in which we enter this fourth turning very differently from earlier fourth turnings, which are worrying,” Howe says.
First, he notes, “government is so huge going into this fourth turning,” while most fourth turnings require government to ramp up in order to face existential threats.
Second, he notes “the size and global power of our military” make the U.S. a central player in world affairs, so a U.S. Civil War will have massive ramifications across the globe.
“If it requires our forces around the world to stand down for six months, the entire world will remake itself,” he says. “The entire world, for better or for worse, depends upon our presence to be what it is.”
Howe also notes that during a civil war, one side often asks for external help: “This is a rule through all civil wars.”
So, When Would Civil War Start?
The Daily Signal asked Howe why the “mini starter crises” of 9/11, the tea party movement, COVID-19, and the Ukraine war did not “catch fire” and ignite the massive existential crisis that defines a fourth turning.
“The survival of the country has to be at stake,” the author says.
“With regard to World War II, I think FDR made the case—it was very persuasive for the country—we did not want to be the only democracy left on earth,” he explains.
“This is the way incentives work,” Howe says. “You’ve got to feel everything’s on the line to push you to do something.”
Things have to come to a head in order to force people to come together and create a new order in society. How exactly that will happen is yet to be determined.
Mysterious “Skyquakes” Are Causing Strange “Booms” in the Sky, and Scientists Have No Explanation
by Michael Snyder
(End of the American Dream)—What is causing the extremely loud “booms” that people are hearing in the sky all over the world? We are being told that “skyquakes” are responsible, but scientists have no idea why these “skyquakes” are occurring. In some cases, the “skyquakes” cause such powerful shaking that…
The Biggest Sale on Long-Term Storage Beef EVER
by Sponsored Post
Let’s cut to the chase. Prepper All-Naturals is offering an unprecedented 40% off for it’s “Beef Steak” survival bags with promo code “steak40”. With a 25-year shelf life and a single ingredient (beef, of course), our most popular product is available for a very limited time with the biggest discount…
Seattle Is Ordered to Stop Blocking Illegal Alien Deportations in the Most Hilarious Court Decision Ever
by PJ Media
A federal court has just pooped in the oatmeal of the West Coast, Messed Coast™governors and local election officials suffering from acute cases of Trump Derangement Syndrome who think they can stop illegal alien deportations. And after this hilarious and thorough legal takedown from the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals,…
Illegal Alien Terror Suspect Found Dead in Cook County Jail Cell
by Slay News
An Islamic illegal alien has been found dead in his jail cell after being arrested on terrorism charges. According to CWBChicago, 22-year-old Sidi Mohamed Abdallahi was found dead at the Cook County jail in Illinois on Saturday. Abdallahi was arrested on felony terrorism and hate crime charges in October. He…
Trump’s Wild Bunch Is Ready for Action
by Frank Miele
If for no other reason than that it will elicit fear in the hearts of autocracy-phobics, I propose that Donald Trump’s second-term Cabinet be known as “The Wild Bunch.” The name is best known as the title of Sam Peckinpah’s classic 1969 western featuring a colorful cast of aging outlaws…
FAA Issues Flight Restrictions Over Questionable Drone Activity Near Trump’s Bedminster Golf Course
by Just The News
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) on Tuesday said that it has issued two flight restrictions on the area surrounding President-elect Donald Trump’s Bedminster golf club in New Jersey, following questionable drone activity. The drone sightings were first reported on Nov. 18, but have continued into this week, according to Fox…
Ex-FBI Agent Convicted for Stealing From Jan 6 Defendant During Raid
by Trending Politics
A former Houston-based FBI agent has been convicted of stealing valuables and cash while conducting searches. In one instance, the agent stole cash and silver bars from a non-violent January 6 defendant’s home. Nicholas Anthony Williams, 36, was indicted on January 31 in the Southern District of Texas. Williams, who…
Democrats, Media Elite Urge Biden to Pardon Trump’s Alleged ‘Enemies List’
by Breitbart
President Joe Biden should issue preemptive pardons to his political allies and those deemed to be on President-elect Donald Trump’s alleged “enemies list,” Democrats and their media allies believe. Delivering a preemptive pardon indicates an admission of guilt, although Democrats claim a preemptive pardon would only be intended to block…
Fani Willis Forced to Release All Communications With Jack Smith, J6 Committee
by Trending Politics
The Fulton County Superior Court has ruled against District Attorney Fani Willis, ordering her to disclose communications with Special Counsel Jack Smith and the House January 6 Committee. The decision, announced on Tuesday, follows a lawsuit brought by Judicial Watch, a conservative watchdog group, which accused Willis of violating Georgia’s…
Lindsey Graham Is the Warmongering NeoCon Leading the Charge to Upend Pete Hegseth
by JD Rucker
Pete Hegseth represents a shift away from the wokeness that has infected the United States military. This is possibly the biggest reason President-Elect Donald Trump tapped him to be the next Secretary of Defense and the vast majority of Republicans on Capitol Hill can support this, at least for the…
‘Where Are Black Democrats?’: Charles Payne Tells Personal Story to Call Out ‘Huge Double Standard’ of Biden Family
by Nicole Silverio, DCNF
(DCNF)—Fox Business host Charles Payne called out the alleged “huge double standard” of President Joe Biden’s family Tuesday by revealing that his brother, who struggles with a crack addiction, is currently serving a jail sentence. Payne said his brother, who is getting out of jail on Friday, is likely one…
Zelensky Admits Ukraine Can’t Retake All Its Land: ‘We Must Seek Diplomatic Means’
by Breitbart
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky conceded in an interview on Tuesday that Ukraine does not have “enough forces” to restore sovereignty over Russian-occupied Crimea and “must seek diplomatic means” to end the Russian invasion and regain its land. The state-run Ukrinform outlet reported that Zelensky described Crimea – which Russia colonized…
Ultra-Processed Foods: How Bad Are They for Your Health?
by Olivia Cook
(Natural News)—Despite the serious health risks associated with eating junk food, they remain the most consumed food products in many countries, particularly developed ones. But a review published in The BMJ, which studied 9.8 million people, warns that eating a lot of ultra-processed foods can increase your risk for 32 diseases. Among these are heart…
“Already Pretty Far Down the Line”: The Container Store Could File for Bankruptcy as Soon as Next Year
by Tyler Durden, Zero Hedge
(Zero Hedge)—As the retail apocalypse that started with Amazon and e-commerce continues, the latest victim is The Container Store. The retail giant could file for bankruptcy as soon as next year, according to the New York Post, who said the retailer is blaming its recent descent on “a weak housing…
Mysterious ‘Car-Sized Drones’ Over New Jersey Prompt FBI Investigation
by Zero Hedge
Several weeks of mysterious drone swarms over the skies of one New Jersey county near the military research and manufacturing facility Picatinny Arsenal have sparked concerns among residents and prompted an FBI investigation. “It’s kind of unsettling,” Mike Walsh, a Morris County resident who has spotted the drones on numerous…
UNESCO’s New Mission: Train Influencers About Combatting Online “Misinformation”
by Reclaim the Net
The UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) is now incorporating teaching influencers how to “fact check” into its activities. UNESCO claims that influencers have become “primary sources of news and cultural information” around the world – which prompted it to carry out a survey into how these online personalities…
