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Fed Chairman Jerome Powell held a press conference at the annual Jackson Hole economic conference today, and he all but said that a September cut to the federal funds rate is a done deal: “The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear.”
Naturally he threw in the usual propaganda phrases about how the Fed is data driven. He continues: “the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”
Remember, with its official statements, the Fed is always careful to try and give the impression that it is not a political organization and responds only to economic data.
But, for whatever reason, Powell and the Fed have now decided official CPI inflation is low enough for the central bank get away with NEW infusions of easy money, even as stocks, rents, home prices, and food prices are all at record high.
On price inflation, Powell all but declares “mission accomplished”: “With an appropriate dialing back of policy restraint, there is good reason to think that the economy will get back to two percent inflation while maintaining a strong labor market.”
So, in addition declaring victory over rising prices – even though last month’s official CPI growth was still nearly 3 percent— Powell is again pushing the myth of the “soft landing” even though there is absolutely no reason to believe the Fed can engineer such a thing.
In fact, if anything, the fact that the Fed now plans to start cutting rates is one of the strongest recession signals we can get.
If we look back at the relationship between rate cuts and recessions, we see that in almost every case that recessions begin shortly after the Fed starts a cycle of rate cuts. The fed started cutting the Fed funds rate in 1989. Then we got the recession of the early 90s. In late 2000, the fed started the rate cuts again. We got a recession in 2001. The Fed did it again in late 2007. The recession began in December 2007, followed by a financial crisis several months later. This relationship even holds for the 2020 recession because even without covid there would have been a recession in late 2020. The Fed had begun to ease the target rate in summer 2019.
Fed rate cuts don’t cause recessions, of course. The boom-bust cycle is caused by reckless Fed-driven money creation.
But it makes sense that the Fed hits the panic button and starts cutting rates when it does because the Fed is reacting to fears about impending recessions. The same is true this time around. The Fed has no special prediction skills, so it sees what the rest of us see: a weakening economy and a much less rosy employment picture than what was sold to us by the administration over the past year. July’s weak jobs report with rising unemployment, combined with this week’s massive downward revision in 2023-2024 jobs numbers, gives us good reason to figure that the Fed is now trying to prevent a recession by flooding the economy with more easy money. […]
— Read More: mises.org
Most Accurate Pollster From 2020 Drops Final Numbers
by JD Rucker
Atlas Intel, which was hands down the most accurate public poll during the 2020 election, just dropped its final poll of the season. It points to landslide victory for Donald Trump. If Kamala Harris is able to win Minnesota and Virginia, two blue states that are in jeopardy of being…
A Kamala Harris Victory Means Green New Deal Lawfare
by Daily Signal
Expect Kamala Harris’ Justice Department to wage Green New Deal lawfare if she is elected president on Nov. 5. As with every last issue pertaining to this election, Harris has not said much about the substance of her climate policy. But a review of her record suggests she’d be amenable…
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by Harbingers Daily
As a pastor and a preacher, I want to urge all Christians this election season: Get out and vote. I believe it is our duty as citizens of our state and country, but I also believe it’s especially important given the issues represented in this election. Many of these are…
No Matter the Final Vote, This Election’s Biggest Loser May Be the Legacy News Media
by Just The News
In the sultry days of summer 2020 as Donald Trump contemplated a second term, his aides engaged in a quiet conversation with members of the emerging digital media about an audacious idea. The goal was to bypass the traditional news media who monopolized the White House Correspondents Association press room…
Democrats Unveil Dark, Diabolical Plans to Prevent Trump From Retaking White House – Even if He Wins!
by WND
With results from the 2024 presidential election now imminent, Democrats have been vocal in their plans to subvert the will of the American people and prevent former President Donald Trump from retaking the White House if he pulls out a win over his Democratic rival Vice President Kamala Harris. In…
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by The Epoch Times
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by Jeff Louderback, The Epoch Times
(The Epoch Times)—In his final North Carolina rally of the 2024 campaign, former President Donald Trump predicted he would win the state where he prevailed in 2016 and 2020. “North Carolina’s reliable for me,” Trump said at Dorton Arena in Raleigh, the first of four stops on Election Day Eve….
If Godly People Don’t Vote, Godless People Will: The Christian Case for Voting
by The Blaze
Do Christians have a spiritual responsibility to vote? Allie Beth Stuckey of “Relatable” and the senior pastor of Lakepointe Church, Josh Howerton, believe the answer to that question is a resounding “yes.” “I’ll gently venture out on a limb,” Howerton tells Stuckey. “I think Christians have a spiritual responsibility to…
Here’s Proof the FBI Protected Biden in 2020, and Why Congress is More Important Than the White House
by PJ Media
You won’t find it reported on the A-section pages of the New York Times or the Washington Post even though it is quite likely the most significant report produced by any investigative committee in Congress since the Church Committee in 1976. For those who need a refresher, the investigative committee…
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by The Federalist
The corrupt news media lied to voters on behalf of Democrats over and over ensuring an unfair election. How can we ever return to normal? It’s truly awe-inspiring to watch the news media berate Republicans, down to the very end, over the “free and fair” election we’re most certainly not…
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by Harold Hutchison, Daily Caller News Foundation
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It Was the Night Before the Election, and Everyone Was Freaking Out
by Michael Snyder
(End of the American Dream)—I have never seen so much doubt, worry, anxiety, fear and panic as we approach a presidential election. All over the country, people are freaking out right now. Democrats are freaking out because the early voting numbers are so dramatically different from 2020. Republicans are freaking…
