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(International Man)—The reason for the dangerously high growth rates of Fed credit is what might be termed the inflation confirmation fallacy. That is to say, once high inflation broke out for the first time in peacetime history, flummoxed mainstream economists soon embraced the notion that the central bank should midwife a gentle, gradualist cure by “accommodating” some significant part of the rising price level, lest a too stingy growth of Fed credit would cause real interest rates to soar and bring the economy to its knees.
The effect of this unfortunate assumption was the introduction of inflation rate management into the Fed’s remit, tool kit and vocabulary. While the official 2% “goal” did not materialize until decades later, it did creep into practice on a de facto basis under Volcker and his successors. At length, the idea that the Fed was not simply managing bank reserves and credit, but was in charge of the performance of the entire GDP including the rate of increase in the general price level became deeply embedded in the institution.
To be sure, Paul Volcker was exceedingly cautious on the matter of accommodating the embedded inflation and bringing down the rate of price increase in a deliberate manner, but he was also a sound money man at bottom. He was willing to accommodate existing inflation to only a limited degree and was ready to risk a recessionary contraction if that was required to break the back of financial speculation and the extant spiral of wage/price/cost inflation that had become embedded during the 1970s.
In fact, that’s actually what did happen and the deep recession of 1981-1982 did accelerate the pace of disinflation. From the peak Y/Y rate of 14.6% in March 1980, the CPI increase slowed sharply to just 2.36% as of July 1983.
At that point, however, Volcker was reluctant to press the case back to old-fashioned notion of price stability, even as he was forced to cope with the Texas cowboy (i.e. James Baker) who had taken over the Treasury during Reagan’s second term. The latter forced through the abomination of the 1985 Plaza Accord, a globally “coordinated” and/or imposed maneuver to trash the strong dollar, thereby importing inflationary pressures back into the US economy.
In any event, the Y/Y inflation rate bottomed at 1.91% in February 1987 and that very month Howard Baker became chief of staff at the White House. From that point forward the two Bakers—James and Howard, who were both easy money inflationists–operated a de facto GOP (the Republican Party) regency in the Reagan White House. So doing, they were not about to have the independent Volcker getting in the way of Republican electoral success.
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So Paul Volcker was out, and his successor, Alan Greenspan, soon faced the infamous 22.6% stock market collapse on October 19, 1987. Thereupon, the once and former gold standard advocate and Ayn Rand disciple opened up the spigots at the Fed’s money-pump, thereby initiating a new surge of inflationary pressure during the last years of the 1980s.
As is evident by the chart below, Volcker’s partial victory over inflation was short-circuited after mid-1983. In all, the price level rose by 71% or 3.3% per annum through the next stock-market meltdown, when the NASDAQ plunged by 33% during 30 trading days in March/April 2000.
Y/Y CPI Change, March 1980 to March 2000
Greenspanian “Wealth Effects”
This capitulation to permanent, residual inflation in the 2-4% zone was a huge historical mistake. It opened the way for Greenspanian “wealth effects” management and the resulting economic abominations. That is, a battered main street economy, which gave way to massive off-shoring of America’s industry, coupled with the relentless inflation of financial assets, which showered Wall Street and the 1% with hideous amounts of unearned windfall wealth.
The trigger for this untoward breakdown was Greenspan’s fundamental policy error. He invented the spurious argument that residual inflation at 2-3% was good enough, when the actual requirement was to purge the inflationary cost structure that was already embedded in the US economy owing to the inflation spree of the 1970s.
What resulted from the Greenspan pivot was nothing more than a great inflationary disaster which amounted to monetary central planning and pro-inflation targeting by the central bank. Suffice to remind why a huge share of America’s merchandise goods are now sourced in China and other parts of the global low-wage supply chain. To wit, the Fed simply inflated American workers out of their jobs via soaring unit labor costs, which became increasingly noncompetitive in global markets.
U.S. Unit Labor Cost Growth, 1970 to 2024
Editor’s Note: The amount of money the US government spends on foreign aid, wars, the so-called intelligence community, and other aspects of foreign policy is enormous and ever-growing.
It’s an established trend in motion that is accelerating, and now approaching a breaking point. It could cause the most significant disaster since the 1930s.
Most people won’t be prepared for what’s coming. That’s precisely why bestselling author Doug Casey and his team just released an urgent video with all the details. Click here to watch it now.
Angel Reese Slammed After Bragging About COVID Vaccinations – ‘Waiting for the Next One to Come Out’
by Western Journal
When young people say dumb things, those who know better tend to err on the side of grace. After all, let them make their mistakes. On the other hand, when those young people emerge as athletic stars and then build a platform from which to spew nonsense in a way…
Sylvester Stallone Survived an Abortion: “I Was Brought Into the World by Accident”
by Life Site News
Sylvester Stallone, known for his roles in Creed and Rocky, opened up about surviving an abortion attempt. His daughters, Sophia and Sistine Stallone, host the Unwaxed Podcast. They interviewed their father about his new Netflix documentary, “Sly.” During the episode, they discussed Stallone’s childhood, something that is addressed in the…
‘What the F***’: Joe Rogan Destroys NYT Headline Warning About Dangers of Constitution
by Daily Wire
Podcaster Joe Rogan absolutely destroyed a recent New York Times headline that warned about the dangers of the U.S. Constitution, suggesting that there’s no amount of “gaslighting” the news organization could do to make him see their side. During “The Joe Rogan Experience” podcast, Rogan and his guest evolutionary biologist,…
What Do They Know? Russia Increases Daily Gold Purchases by 700%
by Sponsored Post
In a significant move, Russia’s Finance Ministry has announced plans to allocate 8.2 billion rubles ($92 million) each day for gold and foreign currency purchases until October 4, the nation’s Finance Minister announced. “The amount of funds allocated for purchases of foreign currency and gold totals 172.9 billion rubles,” the…
CNN Data Guru Says Trump Will Win if He “Outperforms His Current Polls by Just a Single Point”
by Jason Cohen, Daily Caller News Foundation
(DCNF)—CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said on Friday that former President Donald Trump will win the November election if he can slightly surpass his current poll projections. Vice President Kamala Harris is leading Trump by just 0.2% in the top seven battleground states, according to the RealClearPolling average. Enten,…
New Jobs Report Shows Millions of Americans Lost Jobs to ‘Foreign-Born’ Workers, F/T Work Yields to P/T
by Red State
Trying to nail down Joe Biden or Kamala Harris on the number of jobs they’ve “created” — the government does not create jobs; it can create economic conditions that can lead to job creation or job losses — during the last disastrous three-and-a-half years is like trying to nail Jell-O…
Putin Avoids ‘Kursk Trap’ as His Troops Poised to Take Pokrovsk
by SHTF Plan
President Putin has continued to downplay Ukraine’s major Kursk invasion, which has resulted in Russian territory occupied by Kiev forces, and has instead maintained that capturing and holding all the Donbas in eastern Ukraine remains the goal. “We have to deal with these thugs who made it into Russia,” he…
Leaked Army Advisory Warns of Migrant Gang Violence in Major Cities
by The National Pulse
A threat advisory issued by the U.S. Army to Department of Defense (DOD) personnel across the country warns the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua (TdA) has established a significant foothold in multiple American cities and poses a serious danger to local, state, and federal law enforcement. The document—designated as Controlled…
Are You Ready for the Big Steal … Again?
by Richard Blakley, WND
(WND)—The 2020 election was a mess. Only the gullible and self-deceived believe Joe Biden legally obtained more votes than any presidential candidate in U.S. history. If this were true, Democrats would have beaten their drums concerning this “historic” vote, like the pig in the old Valleydale Sausage commercials, but even…
YouTube Uses DOJ Allegations to Justify Axing Tenet Media’s Channel Without Due Process
by The Federalist
The widely used video platform YouTube removed Tenet Media and related channels from its services on Thursday after the Justice Department accused the company of partaking in a secret Russian influence operation. The revelation comes days after the Biden Department of Justice (DOJ) announced the seizure of nearly three dozen…
Has Anyone Noticed That We Know More About Yesterday’s School Shooter Than Crooks?
by Hot Air
The mainstream media has already done a deep dive into the bizarre details of the perpetrator of yesterday’s school shooting, and we have gotten more media availabilities from law enforcement on the events than we have yet gotten from July 13th’s attack on Donald Trump and the three other victims…
Strong Dad Engagement Programs Are Funding the Fight for Fatherhood to Save the Fatherless
by Caldron Pool
“The men the world is raising are not the men the world needs.” No man is born an expert on fatherhood. Good fathers are taught through blunt advice, wise counsel, observation, experience, and their environment. This is why responsible fatherhood programs are saving lives, and why we should be talking…
Ex-CNN Analyst Says Commiela Harris “Has More Riding On” the Debate Than Trump, She’ll Be “More Nervous”
by Jason Cohen, Daily Caller News Foundation
(DCNF)—Former CNN political analyst Chris Cilizza said Friday he believes that the upcoming presidential debate holds more significance for Vice President Kamala Harris than it does for former President Donald Trump. Trump and Harris are slated to compete in their only scheduled presidential debate on ABC News on Tuesday. Cillizza…