Based Underground is now a conservative news aggregator AND curated newsletter.
(Zero Hedge)—Commodity prices provide a real-time snapshot of the global economy through spot prices, which are essentially high-frequency data about the current supply and demand environment. These prices are key components in measuring inflation, which has shown signs of easing over the past year. However, a recent surge in the Bloomberg Commodity Index and signs of a reacceleration in US inflation data are troubling for Fed chair Powell.
HSBC’s Paul Bloxham and Jamie Culling asked clients in a note: “Have commodity prices past the trough?”
Their answer, very simply, “It seems likely.”
“Global commodity prices have picked up in recent weeks and could be past the trough,” the analysts said, noting an emerging “weak” upward global industrial cycle has materialized. They continued:
On the demand side, ‘green shoots’ in the global industrial cycle are becoming more apparent. On the supply-side, geopolitical factors are playing an increasingly disruptive role in the ongoing ‘super-squeeze.’
At a deeper level, real commodity prices have already fallen back to their long-run average – that is, the relative prices of commodities to other goods and services are now not unusually high.
So, even if commodity prices only rise in line with other prices from here, they would be passed their trough.
The analysts warned their new machine learning commodity cycle tool is forecasting a “Weak Bull” run, indicating, “If the trough has passed, the recent disinflationary force from falling commodity prices may be done. Central bank observers should take note.”
The timing of HSBC’s “Weak Bull” commodity run comes as inflation is reaccelerating in the US. Last week’s March CPI data dump showed a stronger-than-expected 3.5% YoY print, an uptick from the 3.2% YoY rise in February.
Summing up the latest inflation report…
The hot inflation print has pushed rate traders to price in the first 25bps of cuts between September and November. Initially, rate traders were pricing in March cuts.
Hotter-than-expected inflation puts upward pressure on rates and borrowing costs with higher risks of derailing Biden’s reelection odds as Bidenomics fails.
The reacceleration of inflation has Larry MacDonald of The Bear Traps Report warning, “We’re only one event away from a 1970-style stagflation explosion.”
Could the return of the mid-70s inflation storm result from an escalation of the Israel-Iran war where Brent crude soars past $100bbl?
Most Accurate Pollster From 2020 Drops Final Numbers
by JD Rucker
Atlas Intel, which was hands down the most accurate public poll during the 2020 election, just dropped its final poll of the season. It points to landslide victory for Donald Trump. If Kamala Harris is able to win Minnesota and Virginia, two blue states that are in jeopardy of being…
A Kamala Harris Victory Means Green New Deal Lawfare
by Daily Signal
Expect Kamala Harris’ Justice Department to wage Green New Deal lawfare if she is elected president on Nov. 5. As with every last issue pertaining to this election, Harris has not said much about the substance of her climate policy. But a review of her record suggests she’d be amenable…
The Moral and Spiritual Issues That Demand Our Votes
by Harbingers Daily
As a pastor and a preacher, I want to urge all Christians this election season: Get out and vote. I believe it is our duty as citizens of our state and country, but I also believe it’s especially important given the issues represented in this election. Many of these are…
No Matter the Final Vote, This Election’s Biggest Loser May Be the Legacy News Media
by Just The News
In the sultry days of summer 2020 as Donald Trump contemplated a second term, his aides engaged in a quiet conversation with members of the emerging digital media about an audacious idea. The goal was to bypass the traditional news media who monopolized the White House Correspondents Association press room…
Democrats Unveil Dark, Diabolical Plans to Prevent Trump From Retaking White House – Even if He Wins!
by WND
With results from the 2024 presidential election now imminent, Democrats have been vocal in their plans to subvert the will of the American people and prevent former President Donald Trump from retaking the White House if he pulls out a win over his Democratic rival Vice President Kamala Harris. In…
Trump Doesn’t Rule Out Banning Certain Vaccines if He Wins Election
by The Epoch Times
Former President Donald Trump in a new interview did not rule out banning some vaccines if he wins the upcoming election. “Well, I’m going to talk to him and talk to other people, and I’ll make a decision,” Trump told NBC over the weekend when asked if banning vaccines would…
Trump, Republicans Pin Hopes on Record Early Voting in North Carolina
by Jeff Louderback, The Epoch Times
(The Epoch Times)—In his final North Carolina rally of the 2024 campaign, former President Donald Trump predicted he would win the state where he prevailed in 2016 and 2020. “North Carolina’s reliable for me,” Trump said at Dorton Arena in Raleigh, the first of four stops on Election Day Eve….
If Godly People Don’t Vote, Godless People Will: The Christian Case for Voting
by The Blaze
Do Christians have a spiritual responsibility to vote? Allie Beth Stuckey of “Relatable” and the senior pastor of Lakepointe Church, Josh Howerton, believe the answer to that question is a resounding “yes.” “I’ll gently venture out on a limb,” Howerton tells Stuckey. “I think Christians have a spiritual responsibility to…
Here’s Proof the FBI Protected Biden in 2020, and Why Congress is More Important Than the White House
by PJ Media
You won’t find it reported on the A-section pages of the New York Times or the Washington Post even though it is quite likely the most significant report produced by any investigative committee in Congress since the Church Committee in 1976. For those who need a refresher, the investigative committee…
The Media Made Sure This Election Was Never Going to Be Free or Fair
by The Federalist
The corrupt news media lied to voters on behalf of Democrats over and over ensuring an unfair election. How can we ever return to normal? It’s truly awe-inspiring to watch the news media berate Republicans, down to the very end, over the “free and fair” election we’re most certainly not…
“It’s Not Going to Be Close”: Mark Halperin Says One Key Voter Group Will Decide the Election
by Harold Hutchison, Daily Caller News Foundation
(DCNF)—Journalist Mark Halperin said on Monday that the turnout of women would decide the presidential election between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump leads Harris by 0.1% in a head-to-head matchup, according to the RealClearPolling average of polls from Oct. 11 to Nov. 3, with Trump’s…
It Was the Night Before the Election, and Everyone Was Freaking Out
by Michael Snyder
(End of the American Dream)—I have never seen so much doubt, worry, anxiety, fear and panic as we approach a presidential election. All over the country, people are freaking out right now. Democrats are freaking out because the early voting numbers are so dramatically different from 2020. Republicans are freaking…
