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By Tyler Durden from Zero Hedge.
David Sachs has asked the unsettling question, Is Ukraine about to become a Forever War?
At the moment that not only is the West risking escalation by continually testing Russia’s red lines, which could even enter the nuclear arena by supplying main battle tanks and soon F-16 jets, Zelensky continues demanding an invitation to NATO, even threatening to sit out the upcoming major NATO summit in Vilnius in July.
While NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and other officials have said Ukraine will not become a full member anytime soon, but have hinted that it would be likely only after the war is concluded, certain security guarantees are currently on the table, but which will only ensure a drawn out, massive Washington commitment.
For example, the Biden administration has been talking up the possibility of giving Ukraine “Israel status” – which would involve a commitment of permanent and rotating weapons shipments and foreign aid, akin to what Washington has long done for the Jewish state.
Sachs commented on the “Israel status” possibility as follows:
This consists of long-term security guarantees (which run for ten-year intervals in Israel’s case) including weapons, ammunition, and money “not subject to the fate of the current counteroffensive or the electoral calendar.”
In other words, America won’t reassess support even if the counteroffensive fails. Indeed, support won’t cease even if voters want to make a change in the next election. Some observers may see here a classic bait and switch.
This would obviously mean continued American involvement and escalation of its role on the losing side.
Washington enjoyed widespread public support (and importantly the support of its allies) for its policies so long as Ukraine could be presented as “winning”…
“Last year, after Ukraine retook land around Kharkiv and Kherson, the American people were assured that the Ukrainians would complete the job in the spring and summer of 2023,” observed Sachs. “This new Ukrainian counteroffensive would roll back Russian territorial gains, perhaps even threaten the Russian hold on Crimea, and thereby drive Moscow to the negotiating table and end the war. Many Americans supported the $100+ billion in appropriations for Ukraine on this basis.”
But, he continued, “The implicit promise was that this was a one-time expense, not the baseline for an annual appropriation in a new Forever War.”
“Zelensky should be at the negotiating table but instead tours the world selling his forever war as Ukraine is destroyed and conscripted Ukranians are killed by the tens of thousands.”
~ Mick Wallace
— James Melville 🚜 (@JamesMelville) April 16, 2023
The pattern looks very familiar, Sachs concluded in his fresh comments:
Now a difficult start to the counteroffensive coupled with a proposed multi-year deal at Vilnius makes clear that this was a lie or a pipe dream. But isn’t this what always happens? Administrations ease us into war with promises of quick and easy victory, and then once involved, tell us we can’t back out no matter the cost because American credibility is at stake. It’s Vietnam, Afghanistan or Iraq all over again, except this time with a nuclear-armed adversary creating the heightened risk that the war could escalate into WWIII at any point.
Indeed we’ve barely exited two-decade long wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and already are well into another ‘forever occupation’ in northeast Syria, with no actual strategic goals or “mission” to speak of.
David Sachs has more detailed analysis in his new article at Responsible Statecraft entitled, Will upcoming NATO summit launch forever war in Europe?
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