AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite It’s become conventional wisdom that the Democrats are going to be drowned by a red wave in November, destroying their majorities and setting them up to lose the presidency in 2024.
Beware Conventional Wisdom! The impact of unforeseen events could help Democrats avoid the worst, perhaps salvaging their majority in the Senate.
But there are some economic indicators that have been reliable guides to political outcomes for half a century. Since the early 1970s, the “misery index” — the inflation rate added to the unemployment rate — has been uncanny in predicting the number of seats in Congress lost by the party in power.
In our present circumstances, that means the Democratic Party and Joe Biden. Needless to say, the inflation rate is what’s on most Americans’ minds right now, and it probably will be on election day. Coupled with the unemployment rate, what does that combined number […]
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