(Zero Hedge)—The U.S. beef industry operates on 12-year herd cycles, with the last herd low in 2014 and the beef packer margin trough in 2015. The current herd liquidation began in 2019, and as of the start of 2025, the nation’s cattle herd stands at 86.7 million, the lowest level since the 1950s.
Herd rebuilding trends may begin soon, according to Goldman analysts Leah Jordan and Eli Thompson, who cited support from high calf prices and low feed costs, though herds appear tight for the foreseeable future. They expect this dynamic to keep beef packer margins depressed due to reduced slaughter volumes and elevated live cattle prices.
Beef cycles typically last about twelve years on average, looking at trough-to-trough in the cattle herd. The prior trough in the herd occurred in 2014, while the prior trough in beef packer margins occurred in 2015. The current herd liquidation cycle began in 2019, with the herd tracking at ~86.7mm as of January 1, 2025, the lowest level since the 1950s. Herd rebuilding may already be underway, or is likely soon, noting supportive industry conditions (high calf prices and low feed costs), which should further constrain supply in the near-term, partially offset by record weights for cattle on feed.
As a result, we expect beef packer margins to remain depressed in the near-term due to lower slaughter volumes and high live cattle prices. That said, herd retention will set up the industry better for the longer term, and effectively starts the clock for more normalized margins in about two years given the breeding timeline, with better visibility likely in a few quarters.
TSN’s beef operating margins track with industry packer margins, while its stock has a moderate correlation as well, noting the stock started to work in advance of the beef-driven earnings recovery in 2016. Additionally, the relationship has already started to decouple in the current cycle, owing to the strength of its diversified business mix across proteins (including prepared foods with greater margin stability).
Analysts posed the question: “When will the beef cycle turn?” — one we’ve been asking at ZeroHedge, too.
Here’s a visual breakdown of the beef industry’s turning points, as charted by the analysts:
“We also believe the cyclical low in beef profitability is creating an attractive entry point for patient investors in Buy-rated TSN,” the analysts noted.
During Tyson Foods’ earnings call in early May, Brady Stewart—head of Tyson’s beef and pork supply chains—offered insights into what may be the emerging bottom in U.S. cattle supplies, which have fallen to their lowest levels in over 70 years. His comments came in response to a question from one Wall Street analyst.
Stewart explained that while cattle supply remains down year-over-year, record-high animal weights are helping to offset the decline in volume. He added that the U.S. cattle industry is likely at or near the bottom of its inventory cycle, with herd levels now at a 73-year low.
At the start of the year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s annual Cattle Inventory report revealed that the nation’s cattle supply had fallen to a 73-year low, totaling about 86.7 million head.
At the supermarket, USDA data from the end of May showed the average price for a pound of ground beef reached yet another record high of nearly $6 a pound.
While analysts expect a cyclical low in the beef cycle, that doesn’t mean the industry is out of the woods just yet—tight supplies and elevated prices are likely to persist for years. Now is the time for consumers to secure local supply chains, even if that means getting to know the rancher down the road.
The rise of the ‘MAHA’ movement is accelerating this shift, as more Americans turn to clean, locally raised beef and reject products from globalist-owned food conglomerates.
Why One Survival Food Company Shines Above the Rest
Let’s be real. “Prepper Food” or “Survival Food” is generally awful. The vast majority of companies that push their cans, bags, or buckets desperately hope that their customers never try them and stick them in the closet or pantry instead. Why? Because if the first time they try them is after the crap hits the fan, they’ll be too shaken to call and complain about the quality.
It’s true. Most long-term storage food is made with the cheapest possible ingredients with limited taste and even less nutritional value. This is why they tout calories so much. Sure, they provide calories but does anyone really want to go into the apocalypse with food their family can’t stand?
This is what prompted the Llewellyns to launch Heaven’s Harvest. They bought survival food from multiple companies and determined they couldn’t imagine being stuck in an extended emergency with such low-quality food. They quickly discovered that freeze drying food for long-term storage doesn’t have to mean sacrificing flavor, consistency, or nutrition.
Their ingredients are all-American. In fact, they’re locally sourced and all-natural! This allows their products to be the highest quality on the market, so good that their customers often break open a bag in a pinch to eat because they want to, not just because they have to due to an emergency.
At Heaven’s Harvest, their only focus is amazing food. They don’t sell bugout bags, solar chargers, or multitools. They have one mission – feeding Americans in times of crisis.
What they DO offer is the ability for people to thrive in times of greatest need. On top of long-term storage food, they offer seeds to help Americans for the truly long-term. They want them to grow their own food if possible which is why they offer only Heirloom, Non-GMO, Non-Hybrid, Open-Pollinated seeds so their customers can build permanent food security on their own property.
