The California Bullet Train Is a Good Lesson in Political Deception

(Mises)—This week, my wife and I have traveled Amtrak’s route to and from Bakersfield, California, with the Amtrak line running down the state’s Central Valley past cities like Fresno and Modesto. As our train sped down the tracks at speeds of up to 83 mph, we could see construction of the much-hyped boondoggle known simply as the California Bullet Train.

Much has been written about the proposed (and proposed really is an understatement) project, which is supposed to run entirely by electricity created from renewable resources. In 2008, California voters approved a bond issue of $9.9 billion to determine the feasibility of the proposed high-speed railroad that would link San Francisco and Los Angeles with a then-$33 billion price tag. I have weighed in myself on this project and its spiraling costs (the present estimated total cost being $135 billion…and rising), writing:

If one tries to make sense of an exercise in spending billions of dollars for a Train to Nowhere, one cannot use conventional financial logic. There is a logical process at work, but it is a logic of a different sort than what appeals to a typical reader of this page. Political logic, especially in a state like California where progressive politics dominates, veers sharply from economic and business logic.

But what does the Central Valley have to do with linking the two California cities, both of which are on the Pacific coast far away from the likes of Bakersfield and Fresno? There already exists a rail link between LA and San Francisco, but it is the slow-moving Amtrak that must make its way through the Coastal Range that runs down the western part of the state. (An aspiring rail rider would board a CalTrans train from San Francisco to San Jose, then hop aboard Amtrak’s Coast Starlight there as it passes through once a day).

It seems that the promoters of the Bullet Train also are having to bow to the state’s varied geography, which brings us back to construction in the Central Valley. As we looked out the window in the brand-new Amtrak passenger cars recently manufactured for the San Joaquins route, we saw huge concrete viaducts in various stages of completion between Bakersfield and Merced—and that was all the construction we would be able to see, since there is no construction anywhere else on the proposed route.

Understand that no private firm would build a railroad like this because it could never recoup its original costs. The current projected outlay of $135 billion almost surely will grow, as the project continues to miss its goals and run into more difficulties. It will be mathematically impossible for the rail line ever to turn a profit, even if it ever is completed—which is highly doubtful.

This leaves us with the line between Bakersfield and Merced, which is not scheduled for completion before 2030 and probably won’t be available until 2033. To understand the absurdity of the whole thing, one should remember that this original Bakersfield-Merced line is being built first because it has the friendliest geography—the Central Valley being flat—which means the trains can run for miles on straight tracks, avoiding the hairpin turns through the mountains that would be a feature elsewhere in the state.

(I have ridden Amtrak many times in California, including going over the Sierra Nevada and in and around the Coastal Range south of San Jose. High-speed rail could not function in these places).

But, even given the flat terrain, much of the Bakersfield-Merced line will have to run on huge concrete viaducts that are extremely costly and will take years to complete. To put it another way, if the lowest-hanging fruit for a rail line has been extremely costly, think what will be the case if they ever try to carve a path around and through the mountains that surround Los Angeles.

To put it another way, as we looked at the ongoing construction of this rail line, we were not looking at success, but rather a huge governmental failure. One would think this would be obvious to nearly everyone, but when California Governor Gavin Newsom and local politicians dedicated this rail line, the rhetoric was so delusional that it was comical. Here are some snippets:

Members of the community and Gov. Gavin Newsom gathered in Kern County where the initial operating segment is taking place. Leticia Perez, chairwoman of the Kern County board of supervisors, said that this project is important for residents of California’s rural Central Valley, providing a 171-mile system from Merced to Bakersfield.

“What is represented today is a game changer, a transformative moment for the Kern County workforce – our access to UC Merced, our access to other parts of the state,” Perez said.

“As a resident of Fresno County, the high-speed rail built right here in the valley has been a dream come true,” said Structures Superintendent Anthony Canales who has been working on the project since 2015. “This is not just a transportation program; it’s a transformation project.”

However, the Central Valley already has passenger rail courtesy of Amtrak and if what we saw on our trip with near-empty cars is an indication of the Amtrak ridership of that area, one seriously doubts that high-speed rail—while a curiosity—will make a difference for people in that valley. The local political rhetoric notwithstanding, even if this monstrosity is completed, it won’t be a “game changer” but rather a conversation piece at best.

The longevity of this failed project is a testament both to political inertia and to the love affair that progressives have with both central government economic planning and especially the high-speed rail. It is a massive malinvestment that is saddling California with huge debts that its taxpayers—most of whom will gain no benefit from the bullet train—will have to shoulder in the future. Those politicians and politically-connected contractors most responsible for this boondoggle will gain the benefits (and get to ride for free), while the victims will have to pay.