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Budget Group Says the Actual Federal Debt Is $158.6 Trillion

by Casey Harper, The Center Square
April 15, 2025
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National Debt

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(The Center Square)–As Americans file their taxes at the last minute this April 15, the federal debt – and Americans’ federal debt burden – continues to grow.

While the federal government reports a national debt nearing $37 trillion, one budget watchdog says the figure is actually much higher: $158.6 trillion, amounting to $974,000 for each federal taxpayer.

Truth in Accounting, a nonprofit budget accountability group that emphasizes a different approach to government accounting, released those figures, arguing that they more accurately represent the fiscal situation of the federal government.

TIA’s report includes $51.6 trillion for Medicare and $67.1 trillion for Social Security for benefits that have been promised to recipients down the road but are not considered in the ordinary national debt conversation.

“These numbers come from the Social Security and Medicare Trustees Reports, which include calculations of the present value of projected benefits over the next 75 years, offset by the dedicated receipts expected over that period,” TIA Founder and CEO Sheila Weinberg told The Center Square. “Our calculations focus only on current participants – we do not include receipts or benefits from future participants.

“For Medicare specifically, in addition to the estimates based on current law, the actuaries also provide projections under the ‘Illustrative Alternative Scenario’… This scenario includes more realistic assumptions about future physician payment rates, and we use the IAS in our estimates.”

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For instance, current government debt levels do not take into account the future payments for Social Mecurity and Medicare in the coming years, some of the nation’s biggest and most problematic financial obligations.

“The Treasury Department only included a fraction, $241 billion, of the Social Security and Medicare liabilities on the federal balance sheet because unknown to most people, according to government documents, recipients do not have the right to any benefits beyond the benefits to be paid next month, and laws to reduce or stop future benefits can be passed at any time,” reads TIA’s report, first obtained by The Center Square.

Budget experts have raised the alarm for years about the federal government’s runaway spending – under both political parties – and the threat it poses to the U.S.

“Our country’s financial condition continues to spiral out of control, and taxpayers are left holding the bag,” Weinberg said.

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TIA argues current federal accounting downplays the severity of the U.S. debt problem.

“Nontransparent, flawed budgeting and accounting techniques currently produce inaccurate amounts, making the federal government’s finances difficult, if not impossible, to manage,” the report said. “The first step in managing the nation’s finances should be presenting accurate and transparent figures through full accrual budgeting and accounting that includes the costs and growth in the liabilities related to the two programs our seniors rely on the most, Social Security and Medicare. This would enable Congress, the President, and the American people to make better-informed tax and spending decisions.”






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Tags: DebtEconomyLedeNational DebtStickyThe Center SquareTop Story
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